{
  "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/what-a-dollar-in-a-booster-pack-buys-back",
  "slug": "what-a-dollar-in-a-booster-pack-buys-back",
  "title": "What a Dollar in a Booster Pack Buys Back",
  "summary": "Across the 35 English sets we can simulate, the cards in one loose booster pack are worth a median 36 cents per dollar the pack costs, and 15 cents once you drop what no buyer purchases one at a time. Not one of the 35 reaches a dollar on either basis. And in some sets the average is not the number you should expect: Evolving Skies gives back 18 cents per dollar on average and about 8 cents in the box you are actually likely to open, because one card in sixty seven boxes carries the figure.",
  "section": "Quant research",
  "published": "2026-09-30",
  "readMinutes": 9,
  "publisher": "moonstone",
  "findings": [],
  "tables": [
    {
      "title": null,
      "columns": [
        "Figure",
        "What it is"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Figure": "**$0.36**",
          "What it is": "median value of the cards in one pack, per dollar the pack costs, across all 35 sets at market prices on 30 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "Figure": "**$0.15**",
          "What it is": "the same median once you keep only cards worth $5 or more and allow a 0.85 realisation factor, across the 27 sets where we have that measurement. Best in that column is 29 cents. Nothing reaches 30 cents"
        },
        {
          "Figure": "**35 of 35**",
          "What it is": "simulatable sets returning less than $1 per $1 on a loose pack. Range roughly 18 to 57 cents"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "How far the average sits from what you are likely to get",
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Average per $1",
        "What a typical box gives back per $1",
        "How far apart"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "Evolving Skies",
          "Average per $1": "$0.18",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.08",
          "How far apart": "2.18x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Prismatic Evolutions",
          "Average per $1": "$0.42",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.24",
          "How far apart": "1.73x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Fusion Strike",
          "Average per $1": "$0.24",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.14",
          "How far apart": "1.70x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Ascended Heroes",
          "Average per $1": "$0.38",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.25",
          "How far apart": "1.52x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Paldean Fates",
          "Average per $1": "$0.28",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.19",
          "How far apart": "1.51x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Crown Zenith",
          "Average per $1": "$0.48",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.44",
          "How far apart": "1.08x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Obsidian Flames",
          "Average per $1": "$0.27",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.25",
          "How far apart": "1.08x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Temporal Forces",
          "Average per $1": "$0.58",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.55",
          "How far apart": "1.05x"
        },
        {
          "Set": "Shrouded Fable",
          "Average per $1": "$0.36",
          "What a typical box gives back per $1": "$0.34",
          "How far apart": "1.04x"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": null,
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Era",
        "Loose pack",
        "Contents per pack",
        "Return per $1",
        "After fees, x0.85",
        "Sellable basis",
        "Middle outcome per $1"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Temporal Forces](/set/temporal%20forces)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$9.27",
          "Contents per pack": "$5.34",
          "Return per $1": "$0.58",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.49",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.29",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.55"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Crown Zenith](/set/crown%20zenith)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$25.65",
          "Contents per pack": "$12.22",
          "Return per $1": "$0.48",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.40",
          "Sellable basis": "not computed",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.44"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Pitch Black](/set/me05%3A%20pitch%20black)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Loose pack": "$6.07",
          "Contents per pack": "$2.72",
          "Return per $1": "$0.45",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.38",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.15",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.34"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Twilight Masquerade](/set/twilight%20masquerade)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$9.26",
          "Contents per pack": "$4.08",
          "Return per $1": "$0.44",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.37",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.20",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.38"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Mega Evolution](/set/mega%20evolution)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Loose pack": "$8.12",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.51",
          "Return per $1": "$0.43",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.37",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.18",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.34"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Destined Rivals](/set/destined%20rivals)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$9.12",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.92",
          "Return per $1": "$0.43",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.37",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.20",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.34"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Loose pack": "$5.75",
          "Contents per pack": "$2.44",
          "Return per $1": "$0.42",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.36",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.13",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.36"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Scarlet & Violet](/set/scarlet%20%26%20violet)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$9.10",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.86",
          "Return per $1": "$0.42",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.36",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.20",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.39"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Prismatic Evolutions](/set/prismatic%20evolutions)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$14.23",
          "Contents per pack": "$5.92",
          "Return per $1": "$0.42",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.35",
          "Sellable basis": "not computed",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.24"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paradox Rift](/set/paradox%20rift)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$8.44",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.51",
          "Return per $1": "$0.42",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.35",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.19",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.38"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Astral Radiance](/set/astral%20radiance)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$10.62",
          "Contents per pack": "$4.33",
          "Return per $1": "$0.41",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.35",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.19",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.34"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$6.83",
          "Contents per pack": "$2.77",
          "Return per $1": "$0.41",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.34",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.13",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.37"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chaos Rising](/set/chaos%20rising)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Loose pack": "$5.60",
          "Contents per pack": "$2.26",
          "Return per $1": "$0.40",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.34",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.13",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.32"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Surging Sparks](/set/surging%20sparks)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$8.50",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.35",
          "Return per $1": "$0.39",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.33",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.18",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.31"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Stellar Crown](/set/stellar%20crown)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$10.66",
          "Contents per pack": "$4.18",
          "Return per $1": "$0.39",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.33",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.18",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.32"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Ascended Heroes](/set/ascended%20heroes)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Loose pack": "$12.94",
          "Contents per pack": "$4.92",
          "Return per $1": "$0.38",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.32",
          "Sellable basis": "not computed",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.25"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[151](/set/151)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$29.80",
          "Contents per pack": "$10.97",
          "Return per $1": "$0.37",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.31",
          "Sellable basis": "not computed",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.32"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Shrouded Fable](/set/shrouded%20fable)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$14.45",
          "Contents per pack": "$5.18",
          "Return per $1": "$0.36",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.30",
          "Sellable basis": "not computed",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.34"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)",
          "Era": "ME",
          "Loose pack": "$11.71",
          "Contents per pack": "$4.15",
          "Return per $1": "$0.35",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.30",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.15",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.24"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$15.56",
          "Contents per pack": "$5.21",
          "Return per $1": "$0.33",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.28",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.19",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.27"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Brilliant Stars](/set/brilliant%20stars)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$16.97",
          "Contents per pack": "$5.67",
          "Return per $1": "$0.33",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.28",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.20",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.30"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Lost Origin](/set/lost%20origin)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$19.56",
          "Contents per pack": "$6.18",
          "Return per $1": "$0.32",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.27",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.17",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.22"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Battle Styles](/set/battle%20styles)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$9.54",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.00",
          "Return per $1": "$0.31",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.27",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.09",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.24"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Silver Tempest](/set/silver%20tempest)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$15.05",
          "Contents per pack": "$4.71",
          "Return per $1": "$0.31",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.27",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.17",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.22"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Black Bolt](/set/black%20bolt) (floor)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$14.94",
          "Contents per pack": "$4.60",
          "Return per $1": "$0.31",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.26",
          "Sellable basis": "not computed",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.27"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Sword & Shield](/set/sword%20%26%20shield)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$11.09",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.37",
          "Return per $1": "$0.30",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.26",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.11",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.27"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldean Fates](/set/paldean%20fates)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$24.94",
          "Contents per pack": "$7.04",
          "Return per $1": "$0.28",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.24",
          "Sellable basis": "not computed",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.19"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[White Flare](/set/white%20flare) (floor)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$14.25",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.99",
          "Return per $1": "$0.28",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.24",
          "Sellable basis": "not computed",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.25"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Obsidian Flames](/set/obsidian%20flames)",
          "Era": "SV",
          "Loose pack": "$13.03",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.47",
          "Return per $1": "$0.27",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.23",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.11",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.25"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chilling Reign](/set/chilling%20reign)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$12.41",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.25",
          "Return per $1": "$0.26",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.22",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.10",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.20"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Rebel Clash](/set/rebel%20clash)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$12.28",
          "Contents per pack": "$3.06",
          "Return per $1": "$0.25",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.21",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.05",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.23"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Fusion Strike](/set/fusion%20strike)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$18.86",
          "Contents per pack": "$4.44",
          "Return per $1": "$0.24",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.20",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.12",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.14"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Vivid Voltage](/set/vivid%20voltage) (floor)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$11.09",
          "Contents per pack": "$2.43",
          "Return per $1": "$0.22",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.19",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.05",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.19"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Darkness Ablaze](/set/darkness%20ablaze)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$9.85",
          "Contents per pack": "$2.14",
          "Return per $1": "$0.22",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.18",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.05",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.20"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Era": "SWSH",
          "Loose pack": "$45.80",
          "Contents per pack": "$8.38",
          "Return per $1": "$0.18",
          "After fees, x0.85": "$0.16",
          "Sellable basis": "$0.13",
          "Middle outcome per $1": "$0.08"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": null,
      "columns": [
        "Set",
        "Rank on paper (of 27)",
        "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)",
        "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more"
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "Set": "[Pitch Black](/set/me05%3A%20pitch%20black)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "2nd",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "15th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "39 percent"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Perfect Order](/set/perfect%20order)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "6th",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "16th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "37 percent"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Journey Together](/set/journey%20together)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "10th",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "17th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "37 percent"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Chaos Rising](/set/chaos%20rising)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "11th",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "18th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "37 percent"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Battle Styles](/set/battle%20styles)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "18th",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "24th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "34 percent"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Brilliant Stars](/set/brilliant%20stars)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "16th",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "4th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "69 percent, the highest but one"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Paldea Evolved](/set/paldea%20evolved)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "15th",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "7th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "66 percent"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Silver Tempest](/set/silver%20tempest)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "19th",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "12th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "65 percent"
        },
        {
          "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)",
          "Rank on paper (of 27)": "27th",
          "Rank on what can be sold (of 27)": "19th",
          "Share of paper value in cards worth $5 or more": "81 percent, the highest in the panel"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "charts": [],
  "sections": [
    "The two questions people are actually asking",
    "Why the average is not what you should expect",
    "Every set, four ways",
    "The ranking reorders once you ask what can be sold",
    "A dearer pack is not a fuller pack",
    "Switching to a box does not rescue it",
    "The average is not the usual outcome",
    "Three sets in the table are floors, not estimates",
    "Whose odds these are",
    "What this number is, and what it is not",
    "What to do differently",
    "What would overturn this",
    "Methodology"
  ],
  "method": [
    "All 35 sets, sorted on the unrounded return per dollar. One run of 600 simulated boxes per set, card prices as read 30 September 2026, pack prices stamped 29 or 30 September 2026. Gaps of about five cents or less are not ranked. Rows marked (floor) hold priced cards our pack model cannot place in any pack slot, so their figure is a floor rather than an estimate."
  ],
  "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file."
}