{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/where-the-money-actually-is", "slug": "where-the-money-actually-is", "title": "Where the Money Actually Is: 635 Sets, Two Different Answers", "summary": "One of every card we price costs $892,584. The slabs of the cards in those same sets add up to $5.91 billion at their own recent sale prices. The ten costliest sets are 15.0% of the first number and the ten richest in slabs are 30.1% of the second, but it takes fifty-nine sets to reach half of the cost that attributes to a named set, and twenty-three to reach half of the graded value that does.", "section": "Set economics", "published": "2026-09-29", "readMinutes": 12, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "$892,584", "measures": "one of every card we price, on one day", "basis": "52,433 products, September 29, 2026" }, { "value": "$5.91B", "measures": "the cards in those same sets, counted as slabs", "basis": "18.3 million of 20.4 million PSA 10 and PSA 9 copies carry a price, of 25.8 million recorded" }, { "value": "59 vs 23", "measures": "sets needed to reach half of each measure", "basis": "of the $732,836 and $5.81B that attribute to a set" }, { "value": "0.60", "measures": "rank correlation between the two rankings", "basis": "405 sets in both, 3 of 10 shared at the top" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Cost to complete, top 12 of 635 sets. September 29, 2026", "columns": [ "Rank", "Set", "Cards priced", "Set cost", "Graded segment", "Rank on graded" ], "rows": [ { "Rank": "1", "Set": "SM-P: Sun & Moon Promos (Japanese, promo bin)", "Cards priced": "222", "Set cost": "$26,931", "Graded segment": "$266.1M", "Rank on graded": "2" }, { "Rank": "2", "Set": "[Skyridge](/set/skyridge)", "Cards priced": "177", "Set cost": "$19,514", "Graded segment": "$61.0M", "Rank on graded": "22" }, { "Rank": "3", "Set": "[Aquapolis](/set/aquapolis)", "Cards priced": "183", "Set cost": "$17,669", "Graded segment": "$31.3M", "Rank on graded": "45" }, { "Rank": "4", "Set": "[Team Up](/set/team%20up)", "Cards priced": "196", "Set cost": "$11,511", "Graded segment": "$110.8M", "Rank on graded": "10" }, { "Rank": "5", "Set": "Unseen Forces", "Cards priced": "117", "Set cost": "$11,188", "Graded segment": "$37.1M", "Rank on graded": "38" }, { "Rank": "6", "Set": "[Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)", "Cards priced": "113", "Set cost": "$10,719", "Graded segment": "$45.3M", "Rank on graded": "33" }, { "Rank": "7", "Set": "Expedition Base Set", "Cards priced": "165", "Set cost": "$9,605", "Graded segment": "$14.9M", "Rank on graded": "94" }, { "Rank": "8", "Set": "Pokemon VS (Japanese)", "Cards priced": "149", "Set cost": "$9,456", "Graded segment": "$3.9M", "Rank on graded": "183" }, { "Rank": "9", "Set": "XY Black Star Promos (promo bin)", "Cards priced": "209", "Set cost": "$9,103", "Graded segment": "$19.3M", "Rank on graded": "68" }, { "Rank": "10", "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)", "Cards priced": "237", "Set cost": "$8,063", "Graded segment": "$251.8M", "Rank on graded": "3" }, { "Rank": "11", "Set": "XY-P: XY Promos (Japanese, promo bin)", "Cards priced": "149", "Set cost": "$7,770", "Graded segment": "$87.3M", "Rank on graded": "18" }, { "Rank": "12", "Set": "Team Rocket Returns", "Cards priced": "109", "Set cost": "$7,693", "Graded segment": "$15.5M", "Rank on graded": "89" } ] }, { "title": "Where the sets a collector names actually rank on cost to complete, of 635. September 29, 2026", "columns": [ "Rank", "Set", "Cards priced", "Set cost", "Share of ranked cost" ], "rows": [ { "Rank": "10", "Set": "[Evolving Skies](/set/evolving%20skies)", "Cards priced": "237", "Set cost": "$8,063.00", "Share of ranked cost": "1.10%" }, { "Rank": "91", "Set": "[Base Set](/set/base%20set)", "Cards priced": "101", "Set cost": "$2,230.43", "Share of ranked cost": "0.30%" }, { "Rank": "127", "Set": "[Base Set 2](/set/base%20set%202)", "Cards priced": "130", "Set cost": "$1,636.55", "Share of ranked cost": "0.22%" } ] }, { "title": "Twelve sets where the two measures disagree. Cost rank is of 635, graded rank is of 405, and the last column is computed before the dollar columns are rounded", "columns": [ "Set", "Cost rank", "Graded rank", "Set cost", "Graded segment", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost" ], "rows": [ { "Set": "Celebrations Classic Collection", "Cost rank": "294", "Graded rank": "24", "Set cost": "$476", "Graded segment": "$59.2M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$124,378" }, { "Set": "[151](/set/151)", "Cost rank": "121", "Graded rank": "5", "Set cost": "$1,782", "Graded segment": "$164.8M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$92,463" }, { "Set": "[Phantasmal Flames](/set/phantasmal%20flames)", "Cost rank": "176", "Graded rank": "14", "Set cost": "$1,116", "Graded segment": "$101.4M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$90,852" }, { "Set": "Terastal Fest ex (Japanese)", "Cost rank": "151", "Graded rank": "12", "Set cost": "$1,313", "Graded segment": "$109.4M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$83,365" }, { "Set": "[Obsidian Flames](/set/obsidian%20flames)", "Cost rank": "307", "Graded rank": "54", "Set cost": "$443", "Graded segment": "$28.4M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$64,056" }, { "Set": "[Silver Tempest](/set/silver%20tempest)", "Cost rank": "194", "Graded rank": "28", "Set cost": "$964", "Graded segment": "$51.5M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$53,423" }, { "Set": "[Evolutions](/set/evolutions)", "Cost rank": "221", "Graded rank": "36", "Set cost": "$794", "Graded segment": "$39.8M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$50,127" }, { "Set": "[Boundaries Crossed](/set/boundaries%20crossed)", "Cost rank": "59", "Graded rank": "271", "Set cost": "$3,372", "Graded segment": "$0.85M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$251" }, { "Set": "[Dark Explorers](/set/dark%20explorers)", "Cost rank": "38", "Graded rank": "259", "Set cost": "$4,090", "Graded segment": "$1.04M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$255" }, { "Set": "BW Black Star Promos (promo bin)", "Cost rank": "23", "Graded rank": "234", "Set cost": "$5,588", "Graded segment": "$1.60M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$286" }, { "Set": "Pokemon VS (Japanese)", "Cost rank": "8", "Graded rank": "183", "Set cost": "$9,456", "Graded segment": "$3.91M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$413" }, { "Set": "[Plasma Freeze](/set/plasma%20freeze)", "Cost rank": "33", "Graded rank": "223", "Set cost": "$4,718", "Graded segment": "$1.99M", "Graded dollars per $1 of cost": "$421" } ] } ], "charts": [ { "title": "Graded segment value, top 10 sets, millions of dollars", "unit": "M", "note": "PSA 10 population times its PSA 10 sale price plus PSA 9 population times its PSA 9 sale price, summed per set. Populations are the latest recorded reading per registry; prices require five or more recorded sales. Promo bins marked. September 29, 2026.", "points": [ { "label": "SVP Black Star Promos (promo bin)", "value": 287.5, "basis": "97 cards with a sale-backed graded price; Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat is $197.7M of it" }, { "label": "SM-P: Sun & Moon Promos (promo bin)", "value": 266.1, "basis": "57 cards with a sale-backed graded price, Japanese" }, { "label": "Evolving Skies", "value": 251.8, "basis": "94 with a sale-backed price; Umbreon VMAX is $106.9M of it" }, { "label": "S-P: Sword & Shield Promos (promo bin)", "value": 176, "basis": "29 with a sale-backed price, Japanese" }, { "label": "151", "value": 164.8, "basis": "46 with a sale-backed price; Charizard ex is $63.1M of it" }, { "label": "SM Black Star Promos (promo bin)", "value": 152.4, "basis": "96 with a sale-backed price" }, { "label": "SV-P Promotional Cards (promo bin)", "value": 135.4, "basis": "23 with a sale-backed price, Japanese" }, { "label": "SWSH Black Star Promos (promo bin)", "value": 123.9, "basis": "124 with a sale-backed price" }, { "label": "Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery", "value": 111, "basis": "68 with a sale-backed price, an annex printed inside another set" }, { "label": "Team Up", "value": 110.8, "basis": "37 with a sale-backed price" } ] }, { "title": "Share of a set's PSA 10 copies that carry a sale-backed price at five sales or more", "unit": "%", "note": "The rest are counted in the population and valued at nothing, because no price could be justified. Where this share is low the set's graded figure is a floor. Both numbers in each row are after the shared-registry collapse described in the methodology, which is the same universe every dollar figure in this study uses. Fixed 100% scale. September 29, 2026.", "points": [ { "label": "Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery (2023)", "value": 99.8, "basis": "292,244 of 292,736 PSA 10 copies priced" }, { "label": "Evolving Skies (2021)", "value": 99.2, "basis": "200,017 of 201,655" }, { "label": "151 (2023)", "value": 98, "basis": "224,175 of 228,686" }, { "label": "Paldean Fates (2024)", "value": 95.7, "basis": "78,436 of 81,957" }, { "label": "Prismatic Evolutions (2025)", "value": 90.5, "basis": "74,220 of 81,985" }, { "label": "Team Up (2019)", "value": 88.5, "basis": "30,690 of 34,693" }, { "label": "Neo Destiny (2002)", "value": 74.2, "basis": "3,727 of 5,023" }, { "label": "Skyridge (2003)", "value": 47.3, "basis": "6,261 of 13,240" }, { "label": "Expedition Base Set (2002)", "value": 26.7, "basis": "2,793 of 10,461" }, { "label": "Base Set (1999)", "value": 20.8, "basis": "6,830 of 32,844" }, { "label": "Aquapolis (2003)", "value": 20.2, "basis": "1,513 of 7,488" }, { "label": "Pokemon VS (2001, Japanese)", "value": 15.6, "basis": "2,754 of 17,611" } ] } ], "sections": [ "Two numbers we can compute, and one we cannot", "How steep the curve actually is", "Ranked by what it costs to complete", "Ranked by the money sitting in slabs", "The two lists disagree, and the disagreement is the point", "Where the graded number is a floor, not a measurement", "The promo bins are not sets, and one release is two sets", "What an owner does with this" ], "method": [ "TABLES AND DAY. price_history day 20725, which is September 29, 2026, a complete day carrying 52,433 priced products. 52,864 distinct products appear somewhere in the 31-day file and 318 that carried a price on September 7 carry none on this day, so this is the day's record and not a census of everything we have ever priced. price is the TCGplayer market price for the standard printing where the printing rule resolves one and the daily dump's own market figure where it cannot, derived from recent sales rather than live listings. population_snapshots for grade counts and graded_snapshots for grade prices, both read as the latest recorded row per registry and per grade rather than one day, because one day is not the record: the day-20725 refresh carries only 17,201 of the 24,394 registries and 14,670,769 copies, while reading the latest row per registry gives 24,394 registries and 27,132,182 copies. 7,193 registries carrying 12,461,413 copies have no reading on that day at all. The population cron keeps polling through the day, so a later recompute reads a handful more registries and a few more copies than these counts; two independent recomputes have read 17,205 registries and 27,132,186 copies against them without moving any dollar figure in this study. Population readings span days 20667 to 20725; 1,578 of 24,394 registries were last read before day 20711. The graded sale rows span days 20655 to 20725 and most of them are older than the last day, so every graded dollar here is the latest recorded reading per registry and grade rather than a September 29 reading. Any recompute has to pin both tables at day 20725 or the daily graded rotation will move the answer. cards, collapsed to one row per TCGplayer product id, supplies the set attribution. || DEDUPE, TWICE, AND BOTH RULES ARE THE SHIPPED ONES. 2,430 catalogue rows share a TCGplayer product id with another row: 1,215 ids are each claimed by exactly two rows and none by three or more, across 51,719 rows carrying 50,504 distinct ids. So the catalogue is grouped by product id and the surviving row is chosen by pickCatalogRow in server/indices.ts: the row whose set name matches the price file's own spelling, then the lower card id. That tie-break is load-bearing rather than cosmetic. Choosing the lower card id alone returns 639 ranked sets instead of 635 and files two Japanese releases under names written in Japanese. Separately, registries were collapsed where more than one product id is FLAGGED AS POSSIBLY SERVING one PSA registry line, using sharedRegistryKeys in server/db/population.ts unchanged: both populations 500 or more, gem rates within 0.02% and totals within 2%, compared across every reading rather than the latest. That is a tolerance band and not an observed identity, and the module that owns the rule says so: it can report that more than one key claims a line, never which card owns it. That flags 992 of 24,394 registries in 454 clusters. One key per cluster is kept and 538 are dropped, and the key kept is the one carrying a catalogue row, because it is the one that can be named and pictured; then the larger population; then the lower id. The evidence behind those 538 removals splits three ways, and it is published because it is not uniform: 39 of them read an identical grade count and total to the key they were dropped for on every day both were read, worth $16.8M; 320 diverge on at least one day both were read, worth $269.9M; and 179 were never read on the same day at all, worth $56.9M. Those three add to the $343.6M the collapse removes. || THE COLLISION RULE MOVES THE ANSWER AND THE SIZE IS PUBLISHED WITH IT. Keeping one registry per line gives $5,912,596,419. Applying no collapse at all gives $6,256,191,226, which double counts every shared line. Withholding every flagged registry entirely, which is what a per-card page does because it cannot say which card owns the line, gives $5,224,697,682. This study publishes the middle one, because for an aggregate the copies are real and counting them once is right, and a reader should know the other two. That band is published for the total only. Every per-set graded figure, and every rank and ratio built on one, is the single kept-key attribution with no band around it. The largest exposure among the sets named on this page is Celebrations Classic Collection, whose $59.2M reads $64.0M if every dropped key that did not read identically to the key it was dropped for is added back, which would take its graded-per-dollar ratio from $124,378 to about $134,000. || PRICES AND SAMPLE. A grade is priced by the first figure whose comp count is five recorded sales or more: the trailing-window median first, then the all-window median, then the provider's own weighted aggregate, which is gated on the all-window comp count rather than on one of its own. The trailing window is not one width. It opens at 90 days and widens to 180 and then 365 until it holds three dated sales, and the width used is recorded per card and per grade, so a vintage figure can rest on a year of sales where a modern one rests on a quarter: Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat is priced on a 90-day window holding 261 sales and Base Set Charizard on a 365-day window holding 11. Single last sales are not used, because one sale is not a sample. This precedence is stricter than the one a card page shows, which also accepts a single last sale, so a thin card's price here can differ from its own page. Inside the universe the total is computed over, 14,087 registry-and-grade rows, of which 13,914 sit on a non-zero population and can contribute anything: 6,543 priced on the trailing window, 2,691 on the all-window median, 2,328 on the provider aggregate and 2,525 could not be priced at all. Three registries price their PSA 9 above their own PSA 10 and $13,543,233 of the total, 0.23%, sits on them. The largest is Charizard in the Japanese Expansion Pack, whose PSA 10 reads $705 on six sales against a PSA 9 at $2,999.50 on ten, and which is 73% of that set's $18.5M. They are counted and named rather than repaired, because repairing them would move the headline figure this study has already been recomputed against, and they are the same class of fault as the units trap above seen from the other side. The bar moves the answer, so it is published with it: on this same rule the graded total is $6,139,853,102 at a three-sale bar, $5,912,596,419 at five and $5,438,188,184 at ten, an 11.9% spread, with 8,671, 7,257 and 5,267 registries priced. || TWO KEYSPACES, READ TOGETHER. graded_snapshots is keyed by TCGplayer product id on most rows and by catalogue card id on some, while population_snapshots is product-id shaped throughout. 929 graded rows carry a catalogue-id key; each is folded onto its product id through cards and the FRESHER row of the two is used, which is the house rule. Eight of those cards have no product-keyed graded row at all and would have been missing entirely from a product-id-only read. || COVERAGE AND ABSENCE. 11,679,101 of 12,714,779 recorded PSA 10 copies carry a price (91.9%) and 6,623,352 of 7,726,032 PSA 9 copies do (85.7%). 5,317,400 copies graded 1 through 8 have no per-grade population and are never multiplied by anything, and 172,388 of those sit on 2,878 registries carrying no PSA 9 reading at all, so their grade is unknown between 1 and 9 rather than known to be 1 through 8, which makes the PSA 9 pool and its 85.7% priced share floors. The two pools we price are 20.4 million copies of 25.8 million recorded, and 18.3 million of those carry a price. The 27,132,182 copies counted above become 25.8 million here because the shared-line collapse removes 538 registries and the copies on them. An unpriced population is counted as unknown, never as zero, and never ranks a set last. || EXCLUSIONS. 8,041 priced products (15.3%) carry no catalogue row and are left out of every set ranking: they hold $158,001.54 of set cost, 17.7% of the whole, and $100.9M of graded value. The ranked universe is therefore 635 sets and $732,835.70 of set cost, 82.1% of the daily total, and 405 sets and $5,811,652,652 of graded value. Those two shares leave 0.2% unaccounted for, which is the two September releases excluded below. A second gap runs the other way: 46 registries that contribute graded value carry no price_history row on day 20725 at all, holding $239,451,747 or 4.05% of the graded total, so the graded figure is not literally the same product rows as the cost figure. On exactly the same product rows the graded total is $5,673,144,672. The largest of the 46 is Pikachu 227/S-P, which holds $90.2M of graded value and has no recorded market price on any day we hold. 30th Celebration and 30th Classic Collection both released on September 16, 2026, inside the price window, so both are excluded from both rankings; their preorder-priced set costs were $714.45 and $1,031.85. The second of those two resolves its release date only through the price file's own set spelling, because the catalogue calls it \"30th Classic Collection\" where the release table calls it \"ME: 30th Celebration Classic Collection\", and a release check on the catalogue name alone misses it. || FIGURES NOT USED. price_min, the cheapest-printing column, sums 4.18% higher than price across the same day ($929,891.02 against $892,583.54), and that is not a contradiction once the two columns are read as what they are. price is the canonical printing resolved from per-printing data, falling back to the daily dump's own market figure where the rule cannot resolve one; price_min is the dump's own cheapest-printing figure. They come from different sources, so neither bounds the other: on this day price_min sits above price on 6,208 products by $44,274 in total and below it on 4,221 by $6,967. The single largest gap is this page's own hero card, Charizard in Skyridge, recorded at $249.95 on price against $2,999.99 on price_min, which is why Skyridge costs $19,513.60 to complete on the column this study uses and $21,305.20 on the other one. No figure here comes from price_min." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }