{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/which-neo-set-holds-its-value", "slug": "which-neo-set-holds-its-value", "title": "Which Neo Set Holds Its Value?", "summary": "Across 365 cards in the four Neo sets, Neo Destiny holds $10,269 of ask at $90.88 a card, and 69.0% of that sits on cards with a recorded PSA 10 sale.", "section": "Quant research", "published": "2026-09-23", "readMinutes": 10, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "$10,269.47", "measures": "Neo Destiny, summed ask over 113 priced cards", "basis": "more than the other three Neo sets combined" }, { "value": "$90.88", "measures": "Neo Destiny, ask per priced card", "basis": "Neo Genesis is $18.75 on 111 cards" }, { "value": "69.0%", "measures": "of Neo Destiny's ask sits on cards with a PSA 10 sale", "basis": "Neo Revelation is 1.7%" }, { "value": "0 of 4", "measures": "Neo sets where we can measure a price change", "basis": "three instruments, all of them unusable here" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "The four Neo sets, asks on September 23, 2026. All 365 cards are priced, every one of them at its Unlimited Holofoil printing", "columns": [ "Set", "Cards", "Summed ask", "Ask per card", "Median card", "Cards at $100 or more", "Cards under $1", "Top five share" ], "rows": [ { "Set": "[Neo Genesis](/set/neo%20genesis)", "Cards": "111", "Summed ask": "$2,081.52", "Ask per card": "$18.75", "Median card": "$2.15", "Cards at $100 or more": "7", "Cards under $1": "26", "Top five share": "54.8%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Discovery](/set/neo%20discovery)", "Cards": "75", "Summed ask": "$2,357.50", "Ask per card": "$31.43", "Median card": "$5.34", "Cards at $100 or more": "3", "Cards under $1": "17", "Top five share": "61.8%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Revelation](/set/neo%20revelation)", "Cards": "66", "Summed ask": "$3,339.61", "Ask per card": "$50.60", "Median card": "$5.83", "Cards at $100 or more": "9", "Cards under $1": "15", "Top five share": "59.9%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)", "Cards": "113", "Summed ask": "$10,269.47", "Ask per card": "$90.88", "Median card": "$7.47", "Cards at $100 or more": "19", "Cards under $1": "13", "Top five share": "46.4%" }, { "Set": "All four", "Cards": "365", "Summed ask": "$18,048.10", "Ask per card": "$49.45", "Median card": "$4.39", "Cards at $100 or more": "38", "Cards under $1": "71", "Top five share": "not additive" } ] }, { "title": "The single-day step of September 7, 2026, per set. The priced-card count is identical either side", "columns": [ "Set", "Priced cards, both days", "Cards whose ask changed", "Summed ask Sep 6", "Summed ask Sep 7", "Basket move", "Median card move" ], "rows": [ { "Set": "[Neo Genesis](/set/neo%20genesis)", "Priced cards, both days": "111", "Cards whose ask changed": "111", "Summed ask Sep 6": "$4,963.93", "Summed ask Sep 7": "$2,050.12", "Basket move": "-58.7%", "Median card move": "-60.5%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Discovery](/set/neo%20discovery)", "Priced cards, both days": "75", "Cards whose ask changed": "75", "Summed ask Sep 6": "$5,324.67", "Summed ask Sep 7": "$2,357.50", "Basket move": "-55.7%", "Median card move": "-67.3%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Revelation](/set/neo%20revelation)", "Priced cards, both days": "66", "Cards whose ask changed": "64", "Summed ask Sep 6": "$5,766.92", "Summed ask Sep 7": "$3,322.08", "Basket move": "-42.4%", "Median card move": "-60.9%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)", "Priced cards, both days": "113", "Cards whose ask changed": "109", "Summed ask Sep 6": "$19,941.07", "Summed ask Sep 7": "$9,952.22", "Basket move": "-50.1%", "Median card move": "-59.9%" } ] }, { "title": "Graded coverage by set. PSA medians are sold prices and are not split by printing; the ask underneath the multiple is the Unlimited one, and the gated columns require ten or more recorded sales", "columns": [ "Set", "Cards", "With a PSA 10 row in the feed", "PSA 10 on 10+ sales", "PSA 9 on 10+ sales", "Median PSA 10 over ask", "Share of set ask with a PSA 10 sale" ], "rows": [ { "Set": "[Neo Genesis](/set/neo%20genesis)", "Cards": "111", "With a PSA 10 row in the feed": "21", "PSA 10 on 10+ sales": "8", "PSA 9 on 10+ sales": "25", "Median PSA 10 over ask": "93.25x", "Share of set ask with a PSA 10 sale": "11.6%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Discovery](/set/neo%20discovery)", "Cards": "75", "With a PSA 10 row in the feed": "38", "PSA 10 on 10+ sales": "6", "PSA 9 on 10+ sales": "26", "Median PSA 10 over ask": "43.88x", "Share of set ask with a PSA 10 sale": "46.4%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Revelation](/set/neo%20revelation)", "Cards": "66", "With a PSA 10 row in the feed": "37", "PSA 10 on 10+ sales": "4", "PSA 9 on 10+ sales": "20", "Median PSA 10 over ask": "42.24x", "Share of set ask with a PSA 10 sale": "1.7%" }, { "Set": "[Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)", "Cards": "113", "With a PSA 10 row in the feed": "56", "PSA 10 on 10+ sales": "15", "PSA 9 on 10+ sales": "28", "Median PSA 10 over ask": "16.46x", "Share of set ask with a PSA 10 sale": "69.0%" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "The four sets on one day", "Why there is not one percentage in this article", "What does hold value, measured on sales rather than asks", "What this cannot show", "What would overturn this" ], "method": [ "Population. Every English card in Neo Genesis, Neo Discovery, Neo Revelation and Neo Destiny in the catalog after deduplicating on `tcg_id`: 111, 75, 66 and 113 rows, 365 in total, and all 365 carry an ask on the evaluation day. No price floor, no top-N window, no exclusions. Prices. `price_history` on day 20719, 2026-09-23, which held 52,378 priced products; these are ASKS, the daily dump's market figure for the canonical printing rather than the dearest one, not sales. The 25-day tape runs day 20695 to 20719. Days 20704 to 20713 are partial across the catalog (35,700 to 50,400 rows against 52,378 on a full day), so the September 7 comparison is taken between day 20702 and day 20703, both full days at 51,888 and 51,897 rows, and the frozen-window check between day 20714 and day 20719, at 52,166 and 52,378 rows, with every day in between checked as well. `Median card move` in that table is the median of the per-card percentage moves across the cards whose ask actually changed, not the move of the median card; taken instead over every card priced on both days it reads -60.5%, -67.3%, -59.9% and -59.6%. Printing. All 365 Neo cards carry two printings, a 1st Edition Holofoil and an Unlimited Holofoil, and the day-20719 ask equals the Unlimited figure on 364 of them; the exception is Shining Gyarados, whose day-20719 tape value of $718.66 predates the $782.55 its `pptcard` row now carries for the Unlimited printing; the 1st Edition figure on that row is $1,000.00, so the tape is not quoting it either. That is what the September 7 step is: the feed moved from the 1st Edition figure to the Unlimited one, card by card, which is why Umbreon reads $1,500.00 then $752.74 and Lugia $1,085.03 then $518.99, the exact printing pair our own dump records for each. Graded medians are NOT split by printing, so every PSA-over-ask multiple in this study divides an unsplit sold median by an Unlimited ask and is an upper bound rather than a like-for-like comparison. Graded. `graded_snapshots`, latest day per card key and grade, read across the catalog-id and TCGplayer-id keyspaces and resolved by taking the fresher row. These are SOLD medians. Stale-row rule, applied across this whole batch: after the fresher-keyspace read, any median dated before day 20695 (2026-08-30, the start of the current daily tape) is dropped, because the graded feed rotates roughly a seventh of the catalog a day and an older row is a reading from a different week. It removed zero rows across all 365 Neo cards, and no Neo graded median predates day 20695: of the 395 PSA 10 and PSA 9 rows behind these four sets, 387 are dated day 20719 and the other eight run from day 20704 to day 20718, three of them gated (neo2-13 Umbreon at day 20716, neo4-8 Dark Porygon2 at day 20715 and neo4-13 Light Azumarill at day 20718). Collision test, run on every graded row used in this study: several products can share one PSA registry line, so a sold count at a grade is compared against the registry count at that grade whenever the registry row passes the trustworthiness check, and a row recording more than two sales per graded copy is withheld. One sale per copy is not a ceiling, because a slab can be sold more than once, so this is a declared threshold and not an impossibility; the stricter one-sale-per-copy bar is counted beside it below. Of the 33 gated Neo PSA 10 rows, 32 pass, one (neo3-54 Smoochum) sits on a registry row the trustworthiness check rejects and so cannot be tested, and none is withheld; the single failure in the four sets, neo4-33 Dark Exeggutor at three sales, does not clear the ten-sale gate and never entered a figure. Sensitivity: the stricter one-sale-per-copy bar withholds one additional row, neo3-37 Seaking at seven sales against four tens, which is also under the ten-sale gate, so no figure in this study differs between the two thresholds. Every gated column requires a sample of ten or more recorded sales; the ungated `With a PSA 10 row in the feed` column is printed beside it so the reader can see what the gate costs. `Median PSA 10 over ask` is the median across the gated cards of the PSA 10 sold median divided by that card's day-20719 ask, computed per card and then taken as a median, never as a ratio of sums. `Share of set ask with a PSA 10 sale` is the summed ask of the gated cards over the summed ask of the set. Set index. `sethist2:neo genesis`, `sethist2:neo discovery`, `sethist2:neo revelation` and `sethist2:neo destiny` were read and each confirmed to be the set the sentence means. Their last readings are 2026-07-20, 2026-07-20, 2026-07-20 and 2026-09-20. `basketChangeOverDays` returns null for Neo Destiny over 30, 90, 180 and 365 days because of the September 7 step, and `trendOverDays` returns -49.4% over 30 days, which is the figure this study exists to not publish. Weekly series. `ppthist:` exists for all 111 Neo Genesis, 73 of 75 Neo Discovery, 66 Neo Revelation and 113 Neo Destiny cards, and every one of them has a first reading of 2026-08-30. Median convention: upper-middle on even samples. One reconciliation note: the daily tape is a once-a-day snapshot and a card page can refresh between snapshots, so a page read later may quote a different figure; Shining Gyarados read $718.66 on the day-20719 tape and $782.55 on its card page when we loaded it the same afternoon, and the table prints the tape." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }