{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/why-pokemon-card-prices-differ-by-source", "slug": "why-pokemon-card-prices-differ-by-source", "title": "Why Pokémon Card Prices Differ by Source", "summary": "One card carries four honest prices. On 316 cards holding all four, the highest and lowest sit 5.77 times apart, and the ask is the lowest on 246 of them.", "section": "Market Structure", "published": "2026-09-22", "readMinutes": 8, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "5.77x", "measures": "typical gap between the highest and lowest honest price", "basis": "316 cards carrying all four, September 22, 2026" }, { "value": "14.60x", "measures": "the same gap on cards asking under $10", "basis": "55 cards" }, { "value": "246 of 316", "measures": "cards where the quoted ask is the lowest of the four", "basis": "the graded sold median is highest on 301" }, { "value": "3.6%", "measures": "of 25,189 products where quote and cheapest listing differ by 2x or more", "basis": "the two numbers people assume are the same" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Pairwise disagreement between price sources", "columns": [ "Pair", "Products", "Typical ratio", "10th percentile", "90th percentile", "Differ by more than 25%", "Differ by 2x or more" ], "rows": [ { "Pair": "Cheapest listing over quoted ask, ungated", "Products": "25,189", "Typical ratio": "1.000", "10th percentile": "0.952", "90th percentile": "1.099", "Differ by more than 25%": "9.4%", "Differ by 2x or more": "3.6%" }, { "Pair": "Raw sold median over quoted ask, 5+ raw comps", "Products": "435", "Typical ratio": "1.376", "10th percentile": "0.761", "90th percentile": "4.566", "Differ by more than 25%": "69.2%", "Differ by 2x or more": "32.2%" }, { "Pair": "Raw sold median over cheapest listing, 5+ raw comps", "Products": "435", "Typical ratio": "1.344", "10th percentile": "0.645", "90th percentile": "4.544", "Differ by more than 25%": "72.0%", "Differ by 2x or more": "34.9%" }, { "Pair": "PSA 10 sold median over quoted ask, 10+ PSA 10 comps", "Products": "4,577", "Typical ratio": "8.906", "10th percentile": "2.544", "90th percentile": "28.813", "Differ by more than 25%": "99.1%", "Differ by 2x or more": "94.5%" }, { "Pair": "PSA 10 sold median over raw sold median, both gates", "Products": "316", "Typical ratio": "3.188", "10th percentile": "1.220", "90th percentile": "14.909", "Differ by more than 25%": "90.8%", "Differ by 2x or more": "70.3%" } ] }, { "title": "Highest honest price over lowest, cards carrying all four", "columns": [ "Quoted ask", "Products", "Typical spread" ], "rows": [ { "Quoted ask": "Under $10", "Products": "55", "Typical spread": "14.60x" }, { "Quoted ask": "$10 to $50", "Products": "110", "Typical spread": "5.77x" }, { "Quoted ask": "$50 to $200", "Products": "87", "Typical spread": "3.74x" }, { "Quoted ask": "$200 and up", "Products": "64", "Typical spread": "3.70x" } ] }, { "title": "The five widest disagreements and the four narrowest, ranks unskipped", "columns": [ "Card", "Quoted ask", "Cheapest listing", "Raw sold median", "PSA 10 sold median", "Spread" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Armored Mewtwo](/card/smp-SM228), SM Black Star Promos", "Quoted ask": "$309.30", "Cheapest listing": "$309.30", "Raw sold median": "$172.50 (14)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$12,300.00 (18)", "Spread": "71.3x" }, { "Card": "[M Charizard EX](/card/xy2-13), [Flashfire](/set/flashfire)", "Quoted ask": "$68.57", "Cheapest listing": "$68.57", "Raw sold median": "$31.00 (25)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$1,999.50 (23)", "Spread": "64.5x" }, { "Card": "[Gengar EX](/card/xy4-114), [Phantom Forces](/set/phantom%20forces)", "Quoted ask": "$768.15", "Cheapest listing": "$768.15", "Raw sold median": "$550.00 (25)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$30,895.00 (11)", "Spread": "56.2x" }, { "Card": "[Gyarados δ](/card/ex13-8), Holon Phantoms", "Quoted ask": "$304.74", "Cheapest listing": "$315.10", "Raw sold median": "$138.53 (25)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$7,750.00 (18)", "Spread": "55.9x" }, { "Card": "[Eevee](/card/sm115-48), [Hidden Fates](/set/hidden%20fates)", "Quoted ask": "$4.45", "Cheapest listing": "$2.78", "Raw sold median": "$10.25 (6)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$151.75 (46)", "Spread": "54.6x" }, { "Card": "[Mega Charizard X ex](/card/jat-655886), M2: Inferno X", "Quoted ask": "$711.63", "Cheapest listing": "$711.63", "Raw sold median": "$780.00 (25)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$811.50 (561)", "Spread": "1.14x" }, { "Card": "[Milotic ex](/card/jat-587698), SV8: Super Electric Breaker", "Quoted ask": "$99.72", "Cheapest listing": "$99.72", "Raw sold median": "$120.00 (9)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$121.49 (110)", "Spread": "1.22x" }, { "Card": "[Mega Darkrai ex](/card/jat-694999), M5: Abyss Eye", "Quoted ask": "$242.80", "Cheapest listing": "$242.80", "Raw sold median": "$317.00 (18)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$258.50 (421)", "Spread": "1.31x" }, { "Card": "[Charizard V](/card/swsh3.5-79), [Champion's Path](/set/champion's%20path)", "Quoted ask": "$263.66", "Cheapest listing": "$263.66", "Raw sold median": "$350.00 (25)", "PSA 10 sold median": "$382.50 (109)", "Spread": "1.45x" } ] } ], "charts": [], "sections": [ "What each one is actually measuring", "How far apart the pairs sit", "Cheap cards disagree the most", "Which number to use, and when", "What would overturn this", "What this study cannot show" ], "method": [ "Sources: `report_features` on day 20718 (September 22, 2026 UTC) for the raw ask and the PSA 10 sold median with its comp count; `price_history` on the same day for the quoted price and the cheapest listing; `ebay_divergence` on day 20717 for the raw sold median and its comp count. The report feature table's raw price equals the daily dump quote to the cent on 25,269 of 25,614 joined rows, 98.7%, so the two are treated as one instrument and the dump is used for the quote and the floor. EVERY COUNT IS DEDUPED ON THE MARKETPLACE PRODUCT ID, because 1,212 product ids are claimed by two catalog rows each: 25,614 joined rows collapse to 25,189 products, 425 of them duplicates, and the row kept is the one with the deepest PSA 10 pool, then the deepest raw pool. Without that step one product could appear twice in the named table. The strict cohort requires all four numbers plus at least five verified raw comps and at least ten verified PSA 10 comps, which leaves 316 products; the 590-product unrestricted count is printed beside it so the gate can be judged. Pairwise rows are NOT all unrestricted, and their denominators are printed because of it. The cheapest-listing row uses all 25,189 products. The two raw-sold rows require at least five verified raw comps, which takes 1,031 products carrying a raw sold median down to 435. The PSA 10 over ask row requires at least ten verified PSA 10 comps, which takes 6,503 down to 4,577. Those gates are selections on comp depth and every figure in those rows describes well-evidenced cards, not cards in general; ungated, the raw-sold-over-ask median is 1.574 on 1,031 products and the PSA 10 over ask median is 10.220 on 6,503. Spread is the maximum of the four numbers divided by the minimum. Medians and percentiles use the upper-middle nearest-rank convention: the value at index floor(p x n) of the ascending sample, which puts the median at the upper middle on even samples. The named table is the head and the tail of one ranking of the 316 by spread, printed with no rank skipped in either direction. Comp counts in the named table are the verified sold samples behind each median, printed so no reader takes a 561-comp figure and an 11-comp figure as equally settled. The raw sold pool is capped at 25 by construction, so a raw comp count never exceeds 25. Quoted prices and listing floors are ASKS. Raw and graded medians are SOLD medians. An absent number is not recorded, never zero. Not financial advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }