{ "url": "https://www.moonstonehq.com/articles/worst-pokemon-investments-decade", "slug": "worst-pokemon-investments-decade", "title": "Where Money Went to Die: The Worst Pokémon Investments", "summary": "Winners get the headlines; losers teach the lessons. Round-trip singles, negative-EV grading submissions, and the sealed products that quietly lagged for a decade, every failure mode, measured.", "section": "Investment Research", "published": "2026-07-26", "readMinutes": 10, "publisher": "moonstone", "findings": [ { "value": "−91%", "measures": "worst peak-to-now single", "basis": "Umbreon Neo Discovery, raw" }, { "value": "−$2,007", "measures": "worst expected grading edge", "basis": "per raw Shining Tyranitar submission" }, { "value": "31%", "measures": "of WotC-era submissions are negative-EV", "basis": "vs 2% for Scarlet & Violet" }, { "value": "~10%", "measures": "CAGR of the decade's worst sealed class", "basis": "pin collections vs 20%+ for pack boxes" } ], "tables": [ { "title": "Worst drawdowns from the 2025–26 peak (raw, 14-day medians)", "columns": [ "Card", "Peak", "Now", "Drawdown" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Umbreon](/card/neo2-13) · [Neo Discovery](/set/neo%20discovery)", "Peak": "$1,800", "Now": "$160", "Drawdown": "−91%" }, { "Card": "[Charizard](/card/base1-4) · [Base Set](/set/base%20set)", "Peak": "$823", "Now": "$250", "Drawdown": "−70%" }, { "Card": "Kyogre & Groudon LEGEND · [Undaunted](/set/undaunted)", "Peak": "$499", "Now": "$210", "Drawdown": "−58%" }, { "Card": "[Umbreon](/card/ecard2-41) · [Aquapolis](/set/aquapolis)", "Peak": "$700", "Now": "$310", "Drawdown": "−56%" }, { "Card": "[Umbreon ex](/card/ex10-112) · Unseen Forces", "Peak": "$1,000", "Now": "$500", "Drawdown": "−50%" }, { "Card": "[Rayquaza ex](/card/ex3-97) · Dragon", "Peak": "$405", "Now": "$210", "Drawdown": "−48%" }, { "Card": "[Bianca](/card/bw7-147) · [Boundaries Crossed](/set/boundaries%20crossed)", "Peak": "$332", "Now": "$188", "Drawdown": "−44%" }, { "Card": "Koraidon · SVP Black Star Promos", "Peak": "$93", "Now": "$54", "Drawdown": "−42%" } ] }, { "title": "Eight of the fifteen negative-EV cards (pop-weighted, $22 fee, anomalies excluded)", "columns": [ "Card", "Raw", "Gem odds", "PSA 10", "PSA 9", "Expected edge" ], "rows": [ { "Card": "[Shining Tyranitar](/card/neo4-113) · [Neo Destiny](/set/neo%20destiny)", "Raw": "$4,250", "Gem odds": "5.6%", "PSA 10": "$18,990", "PSA 9": "$2,125", "Expected edge": "−$2,007" }, { "Card": "[Shining Celebi](/card/neo4-106) · Neo Destiny", "Raw": "$1,801", "Gem odds": "7.5%", "PSA 10": "$4,118", "PSA 9": "$1,821", "Expected edge": "−$564" }, { "Card": "[Shining Mewtwo](/card/neo4-109) · Neo Destiny", "Raw": "$3,000", "Gem odds": "6.0%", "PSA 10": "$11,750", "PSA 9": "$4,550", "Expected edge": "−$526" }, { "Card": "[Shining Kabutops](/card/neo4-108) · Neo Destiny", "Raw": "$1,400", "Gem odds": "9.1%", "PSA 10": "$4,375", "PSA 9": "$947", "Expected edge": "−$455" }, { "Card": "[M Gengar-EX](/card/xyp-XY166) · XY Promos", "Raw": "$273", "Gem odds": "3.3%", "PSA 10": "$640", "PSA 9": "$200", "Expected edge": "−$202" }, { "Card": "[Dark Scizor](/card/neo4-9) · Neo Destiny", "Raw": "$595", "Gem odds": "2.5%", "PSA 10": "$5,300", "PSA 9": "$826", "Expected edge": "−$172" }, { "Card": "[Dark Charizard](/card/base5-21) · [Team Rocket](/set/team%20rocket)", "Raw": "$176", "Gem odds": "2.6%", "PSA 10": "$1,563", "PSA 9": "$301", "Expected edge": "−$28" }, { "Card": "[Charizard VMAX](/card/swsh3.5-74) · [Champion's Path](/set/champion's%20path)", "Raw": "$233", "Gem odds": "69.7%", "PSA 10": "$285", "PSA 9": "$166", "Expected edge": "−$11" } ] }, { "title": "The lagging sealed class, promo/pin formats vs pack formats (5–7 year holds)", "columns": [ "Product", "MSRP", "Today", "Multiple", "≈CAGR" ], "rows": [ { "Product": "Champion's Path Pin Collection (Hammerlocke)", "MSRP": "$24.99", "Today": "$46.50", "Multiple": "1.9×", "≈CAGR": "~11%" }, { "Product": "Champion's Path Pin Collection (Ballonlea)", "MSRP": "$24.99", "Today": "$46.98", "Multiple": "1.9×", "≈CAGR": "~11%" }, { "Product": "Shining Fates Mad Party Pins (Bunnelby)", "MSRP": "$24.99", "Today": "$40.31", "Multiple": "1.6×", "≈CAGR": "~9%" }, { "Product": "Shining Fates Mad Party Pins (Polteageist)", "MSRP": "$24.99", "Today": "$46.11", "Multiple": "1.8×", "≈CAGR": "~12%" }, { "Product": "Shining Fates Mini Tin (Reshiram)", "MSRP": "$9.99", "Today": "$33.08", "Multiple": "3.3×", "≈CAGR": "~25%" }, { "Product": "Hidden Fates Tin (Charizard GX)", "MSRP": "$19.99", "Today": "$155.74", "Multiple": "7.8×", "≈CAGR": "~34%" } ] } ], "charts": [ { "title": "Share of cards grading at NEGATIVE expected value, by era", "unit": "%", "note": "Pop-weighted EV vs raw + $22 fee; the 277 pop-rich cards that land in these seven era buckets, of 283 screened; comp anomalies excluded", "points": [ { "label": "WotC 1999–2003", "value": 31, "basis": "n=29" }, { "label": "XY 2014–2017", "value": 6, "basis": "n=31" }, { "label": "SWSH 2020–2022", "value": 4, "basis": "n=55" }, { "label": "EX 2003–2007", "value": 2, "basis": "n=40" }, { "label": "SV 2023–2025", "value": 2, "basis": "n=56" }, { "label": "SM 2017–2019", "value": 0, "basis": "n=48" }, { "label": "DP–HGSS 2007–2011", "value": 0, "basis": "n=18" } ] } ], "sections": [ "The round trip: buying the vertical move", "Negative-EV grading: paying $22 to lose $2,000", "Sealed: nothing died, but the trinket boxes lagged for a decade" ], "method": [ "Price histories are daily market-price series over the longest window our data supports per card (January 2025 – July 2026; 425 cards with ≥200 daily points, $10 floor); 'peak' and 'now' are 14-day medians, so single-day spikes cannot create a fake drawdown. Decade-scale sealed figures use documented retail prices (MSRP) against current tracked prices, with CAGR approximated over each product's years since release. Grading EV = pop-weighted expected slab value (true PSA registry grade shares × per-grade eBay sale medians, ≥3 sales per grade; sub-8 outcomes haircut to 55% of the 8) minus raw market price and a $22 grading fee; grade-inverted or >40× comp anomalies excluded rather than smoothed. All linked product pages price continuously and will drift from captured figures. DATING NOTE, added 2026-09-22: every drawdown, peak and 'now' figure above is as of July 26, 2026, and none of them can be recomputed today. The per-card weekly tape these came from was later overwritten by its own refresh, and 18,004 of 27,653 series now begin in August 2026, including Neo Discovery Umbreon, Base Set Charizard, Aquapolis Umbreon, Bianca and all five Prismatic Evolutions cards named here. The sealed prices have moved too: the Hammerlocke pin collection reads $47.75 today against the $46.50 printed, the Bunnelby pin $49.81 against $40.31, and the Hidden Fates Charizard tin $170.84 against $155.74. Nothing here is financial advice." ], "terms": "Figures are moonstone's own recorded measurements, dated as published. Quote them with the population stated beside them. The article at `url` is the human form of this file." }