Ask what a Fossil Moltres is worth and you can honestly answer $192.61, $61, or $199.99. The first is the TCGplayer market price. The second is the median of verified eBay raw sales. The third is the PSA 9 sold median. People lose real money treating these as interchangeable. They measure different transactions in different venues with different condition mixes.
Fossil Moltres, one card, three prices, August 2026
| Number | What it measures | When it matters |
|---|---|---|
| $192.61 TCGplayer market | recent marketplace sales, mixed conditions, listed supply | what you pay a store today |
| $61 eBay raw sold median | verified individual raw sales at auction and best offer | what a raw copy actually fetches when you sell |
| $199.99 PSA 9 sold median (72 sales) | the graded market for one specific grade | what a slab is worth, never derived from raw |
Why the spreads are real
The marketplace price includes retail convenience, condition optimism, and listed-but-unsold supply. The auction median is what buyers actually paid, which for vintage raw cards runs far below marketplace asks because condition risk lands on the buyer. And the graded price belongs to a different asset: the slab certifies condition, so it trades on its own comps. On modern cards the spread narrows. On vintage we have measured marketplace and auction medians diverging in both directions, sometimes several fold, and both numbers were correct.
Prices pulled August 26, 2026: TCGplayer market from our daily sync, eBay raw and PSA 9 medians rebuilt from individual sold listings verified per listing for card, set, number, and printing.