Set deskNovember 2026
Mega Evolution
$1,292Full set−12.2% 30 days
The sum of every card's real TCGplayer price, recorded daily.
$0.18 Median card187 Priced
Recorded low$1,292November 1, 2026All-time high$1,601September 8, 2026
From that high−19.3%set value today
First recorded$1,601when we started tracking, not a release
Dearer than0%0 of 56 recorded days were cheaper
Realized vol6%annualized, 56 days of daily returns
Max drawdown−19.3%recorded window
How these are measured
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Each return is the first recorded value inside its window against the last. We withhold it when the number of cards in the basket changed inside the window, when a single step moved more than 20%, or when the series cannot cover the window.
Ask about Mega Evolution
Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
10 cards$1,025other 177$267
The short, expensive tail of the set.
If you are building it
You can own 177 of the 187 priced cards in Mega Evolution for about $267. The median card is $0.18. The remaining $1,025 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Mega Lucario ex - 188/132, $205) is 16% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 21% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132$205−12.1% 30d
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132$163−6.2% 30d
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132$162−6.9% 30d
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132$153−18.2% 30d
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132$110−25.7% 30d
Mega Latias ex - 181/132$64−15.1% 30d
Mega Kangaskhan ex - 182/132$49.75−9.0% 30d
Lillie's Determination - 184/132$46.5−16.0% 30d
Mega Absol ex - 180/132$45.36−10.2% 30d
Acerola's Mischief - 183/132$25.45−12.6% 30d
| No. | Card | Market |
|---|---|---|
| 001/132 | BulbasaurCommon | $0.22 |
| 002/132 | IvysaurCommon | $0.24 |
| 003/132 | Mega Venusaur exDouble rare | $1.00 |
| 004/132 | ExeggcuteCommon | $0.16 |
| 005/132 | ExeggutorUncommon | $0.06 |
| 006/132 | TangelaCommon | $0.07 |
| 007/132 | TangrowthUncommon | $0.08 |
| 008/132 | ChikoritaCommon | $0.19 |
| 009/132 | BayleefCommon | $0.24 |
| 010/132 | MeganiumRare | $0.20 |
| 011/132 | ShuckleUncommon | $0.13 |
| 012/132 | CelebiUncommon | $0.18 |
| 013/132 | SeedotCommon | $0.08 |
| 014/132 | NuzleafCommon | $0.10 |
| 015/132 | ShiftryUncommon | $0.06 |
| 016/132 | NincadaCommon | $0.13 |
| 017/132 | NinjaskUncommon | $0.14 |
| 018/132 | DhelmiseCommon | $0.07 |
| 019/132 | VulpixCommon | $0.09 |
| 020/132 | NinetalesUncommon | $0.15 |
| 021/132 | NumelCommon | $0.08 |
| 022/132 | Mega Camerupt exDouble rare | $0.51 |
| 023/132 | LitleoCommon | $0.10 |
| 024/132 | PyroarUncommon | $0.13 |
| 025/132 | VolcanionUncommon | $0.07 |
| 026/132 | ScorbunnyCommon | $0.13 |
| 027/132 | RabootCommon | $0.14 |
| 028/132 | CinderaceRare | $0.16 |
| 029/132 | SizzlipedeCommon | $0.09 |
| 030/132 | CentiskorchUncommon | $0.12 |
| 031/132 | Chi-YuUncommon | $0.08 |
| 032/132 | MantineCommon | $0.13 |
| 033/132 | CorphishCommon | $0.04 |
| 034/132 | KyogreRare | $0.21 |
| 035/132 | SnoverCommon | $0.10 |
| 036/132 | Mega Abomasnow exDouble rare | $0.60 |
| 037/132 | ClauncherCommon | $0.13 |
| 038/132 | ClawitzerRare | $0.17 |
| 039/132 | SobbleCommon | $0.12 |
| 040/132 | DrizzileCommon | $0.12 |
| 041/132 | InteleonUncommon | $0.07 |
| 042/132 | SnomCommon | $0.16 |
| 043/132 | FrosmothUncommon | $0.14 |
| 044/132 | EiscueCommon | $0.07 |
| 045/132 | MagnemiteCommon | $0.14 |
| 046/132 | MagnetonCommon | $0.19 |
| 047/132 | MagnezoneUncommon | $0.06 |
| 048/132 | RaikouRare | $0.39 |
| 049/132 | ElectrikeCommon | $0.17 |
| 050/132 | Mega Manectric exDouble rare | $0.58 |
| 051/132 | PachirisuCommon | $0.11 |
| 052/132 | HelioptileCommon | $0.16 |
| 053/132 | HelioliskCommon | $0.08 |
| 054/132 | AbraCommon | $0.23 |
| 055/132 | KadabraUncommon | $0.23 |
| 056/132 | AlakazamRare | $0.26 |
| 057/132 | JynxCommon | $0.16 |
| 058/132 | RaltsCommon | $0.20 |
| 059/132 | KirliaCommon | $0.27 |
| 060/132 | Mega Gardevoir exDouble rare | $0.67 |
| 061/132 | ShedinjaUncommon | $0.17 |
| 062/132 | SpoinkCommon | $0.08 |
| 063/132 | GrumpigUncommon | $0.13 |
| 064/132 | XerneasRare | $0.15 |
| 065/132 | GreavardCommon | $0.08 |
| 066/132 | HoundstoneUncommon | $0.11 |
| 067/132 | GimmighoulCommon | $0.07 |
| 068/132 | SandshrewCommon | $0.18 |
| 069/132 | SandslashCommon | $0.07 |
| 070/132 | OnixCommon | $0.14 |
| 071/132 | TyrogueCommon | $0.20 |
| 072/132 | MakuhitaCommon | $0.17 |
| 073/132 | HariyamaRare | $0.16 |
| 074/132 | LunatoneRare | $0.20 |
| 075/132 | SolrockUncommon | $0.22 |
| 076/132 | RioluCommon | $0.14 |
| 077/132 | Mega Lucario exDouble rare | $0.67 |
| 078/132 | CroagunkCommon | $0.05 |
| 079/132 | ToxicroakCommon | $0.08 |
| 080/132 | MarshadowUncommon | $0.07 |
| 081/132 | StonjournerUncommon | $0.04 |
| 082/132 | NacliCommon | $0.10 |
| 083/132 | NaclstackCommon | $0.14 |
| 084/132 | GarganaclUncommon | $0.06 |
| 085/132 | CrawdauntUncommon | $0.06 |
| 086/132 | Mega Absol exDouble rare | $0.77 |
| 087/132 | SpiritombUncommon | $0.17 |
| 088/132 | YveltalRare | $0.21 |
| 089/132 | NickitCommon | $0.04 |
| 090/132 | ThievulCommon | $0.15 |
| 091/132 | ShroodleCommon | $0.06 |
| 092/132 | GrafaiaiCommon | $0.08 |
| 093/132 | SteelixRare | $0.21 |
| 094/132 | Mega Mawile exDouble rare | $0.63 |
| 095/132 | DialgaRare | $0.15 |
| 096/132 | TinkatinkCommon | $0.14 |
| 097/132 | TinkatuffCommon | $0.14 |
| 098/132 | TinkatonUncommon | $0.13 |
| 099/132 | GholdengoUncommon | $0.08 |
| 100/132 | Mega Latias exDouble rare | $0.53 |
| 101/132 | LatiosUncommon | $0.11 |
| 102/132 | SpearowCommon | $0.08 |
| 103/132 | FearowCommon | $0.07 |
| 104/132 | Mega Kangaskhan exDouble rare | $1.35 |
| 105/132 | DelibirdCommon | $0.08 |
| 106/132 | MiltankCommon | $0.04 |
| 107/132 | BunearyCommon | $0.10 |
| 108/132 | LopunnyCommon | $0.15 |
| 109/132 | YungoosCommon | $0.07 |
| 110/132 | GumshoosUncommon | $0.08 |
| 111/132 | StuffulCommon | $0.06 |
| 112/132 | BewearCommon | $0.15 |
| 113/132 | Acerola's MischiefUncommon | $0.12 |
| 114/132 | Boss's OrdersUncommon | $0.19 |
| 115/132 | Energy SwitchCommon | $0.22 |
| 116/132 | Fighting GongUncommon | $0.15 |
| 117/132 | Forest of VitalityUncommon | $0.22 |
| 118/132 | Iron DefenderUncommon | $0.12 |
| 119/132 | Lillie's DeterminationUncommon | $0.38 |
| 120/132 | Lt. Surge's BargainUncommon | $0.15 |
| 121/132 | Mega SignalUncommon | $0.17 |
| 122/132 | Mystery GardenUncommon | $0.17 |
| 123/132 | Pokémon Center LadyCommon | $0.22 |
| 124/132 | Premium Power ProUncommon | $0.18 |
| 125/132 | Rare CandyCommon | $0.26 |
| 126/132 | RepelUncommon | $0.15 |
| 127/132 | Risky RuinsUncommon | $0.28 |
| 128/132 | Strange TimepieceUncommon | $0.16 |
| 129/132 | Surfing BeachUncommon | $0.23 |
| 130/132 | SwitchCommon | $0.18 |
| 131/132 | Ultra BallCommon | $0.20 |
| 132/132 | Wally's CompassionUncommon | $0.27 |
| 133/132 | BulbasaurIllustration rare | $16.67 |
| 134/132 | IvysaurIllustration rare | $15.75 |
| 135/132 | ExeggutorIllustration rare | $3.61 |
| 136/132 | ShuckleIllustration rare | $6.75 |
| 137/132 | NinjaskIllustration rare | $3.89 |
| 138/132 | VulpixIllustration rare | $16.67 |
| 139/132 | LitleoIllustration rare | $3.82 |
| 140/132 | SnoverIllustration rare | $2.23 |
| 141/132 | ClawitzerIllustration rare | $1.72 |
| 142/132 | InteleonIllustration rare | $2.27 |
| 143/132 | HelioptileIllustration rare | $3.46 |
| 144/132 | ShedinjaIllustration rare | $3.01 |
| 145/132 | HoundstoneIllustration rare | $2.49 |
| 146/132 | MarshadowIllustration rare | $9.21 |
| 147/132 | GarganaclIllustration rare | $1.14 |
| 148/132 | SpiritombIllustration rare | $2.51 |
| 149/132 | ShroodleIllustration rare | $1.89 |
| 150/132 | SteelixIllustration rare | $6.33 |
| 151/132 | SpearowIllustration rare | $3.65 |
| 152/132 | DelibirdIllustration rare | $2.59 |
| 153/132 | GumshoosIllustration rare | $2.59 |
| 154/132 | StuffulIllustration rare | $6.85 |
| 155/132 | Mega Venusaur exUltra Rare | $9.67 |
| 156/132 | Mega Camerupt exUltra Rare | $1.22 |
| 157/132 | Mega Abomasnow exUltra Rare | $1.25 |
| 158/132 | Mega Manectric exUltra Rare | $2.28 |
| 159/132 | Mega Gardevoir exUltra Rare | $4.98 |
| 160/132 | Mega Lucario exUltra Rare | $10.15 |
| 161/132 | Mega Absol exUltra Rare | $4.56 |
| 162/132 | Mega Mawile exUltra Rare | $1.87 |
| 163/132 | Mega Latias exUltra Rare | $3.56 |
| 164/132 | Mega Kangaskhan exUltra Rare | $6.88 |
| 165/132 | Acerola's MischiefUltra Rare | $1.59 |
| 166/132 | Air BalloonUltra Rare | $2.71 |
| 167/132 | Buddy-Buddy PoffinUltra Rare | $5.32 |
| 168/132 | Fighting GongUltra Rare | $2.02 |
| 169/132 | Lillie's DeterminationUltra Rare | $19.85 |
| 170/132 | Lt. Surge's BargainUltra Rare | · |
| 171/132 | Mega SignalUltra Rare | $0.93 |
| 172/132 | Mystery GardenUltra Rare | $0.84 |
| 173/132 | Night StretcherUltra Rare | $5.24 |
| 174/132 | Premium Power ProUltra Rare | $1.86 |
| 175/132 | Rare CandyUltra Rare | $3.50 |
| 176/132 | Wally's CompassionUltra Rare | $2.82 |
| 177/132 | Mega Venusaur exSpecial illustration rare | $110.31 |
| 178/132 | Mega Gardevoir exSpecial illustration rare | $162.69 |
| 179/132 | Mega Lucario exSpecial illustration rare | $162.44 |
| 180/132 | Mega Absol exSpecial illustration rare | $45.36 |
| 181/132 | Mega Latias exSpecial illustration rare | $64.00 |
| 182/132 | Mega Kangaskhan exSpecial illustration rare | $49.75 |
| 183/132 | Acerola's MischiefSpecial illustration rare | $25.45 |
| 184/132 | Lillie's DeterminationSpecial illustration rare | $46.50 |
| 185/132 | Lt. Surge's BargainSpecial illustration rare | $12.46 |
| 186/132 | Wally's CompassionSpecial illustration rare | $18.28 |
| 187/132 | Mega Gardevoir exMega Hyper Rare | $153.40 |
| 188/132 | Mega Lucario exMega Hyper Rare | $204.83 |
Show all 188Show fewer
Every Mega Evolution card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.
- chase card · Mega Lucario ex - 188/132$204.83
- sealed booster box · Mega Evolution$300.19
Cheaper than the box
The single most valuable card in this set costs $95.36 less than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, quoted October 31, 2026.
68.2% of the box. Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.
The chase, priced in packsMega Lucario ex ($204.83) lands about once per 2,520 packs · ~70 booster boxes · $21,013 of packs at today's box price
| Tier | Odds per pack | Expected per box |
|---|---|---|
| Double rare (ex) | 1 in 5 | 7.2 |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1 in 12 | 3 |
| Illustration rare | 1 in 9 | 4 |
| Special illustration rare | 1 in 101 | 0.36 |
| Hyper rare (gold) | 1 in 1260 | 0.03 |
Where these odds come from
Odds are measured rates from TCGplayer Infinite pull-rate study (5,000+ packs); The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.
Cheapest recorded route to packsMega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box $8.29/pack
Biggest 30-day moveMega Evolution Half Booster Box +20.0%
Show all 33Show fewer
Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes
Should you rip Mega Evolution?
2.1%
of boxes beat the $302 box price
- Bottom 5%$66
- Median box$95
- Expected value$118
- Top 5%$260
Where 10,000 boxes landed
56.6%$0-100
31.8%$100-200
9.5%$200-300
1.7%$300-400
0.4%$400-500
0.0%$500-600
0.0%$600-700
Red buckets end below the $302 box price. 83.1% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.0% doubled it.
How the simulation works, tier by tier
We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Mega Evolution using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($302, $8.39/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 39.0% of the box ask on average.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
| Hit tier | Published rate | Pool | Avg / box | Mean value | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration rare | 1-in-101 (0.99% +/- 0.27%) | 10 | 0.36 | $70.13 | Mega Lucario ex ($164) |
| Illustration rare | 1-in-9 (10.89% +/- 0.86%) | 22 | 3.9 | $5.40 | Bulbasaur ($17) |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1-in-12 (8.23% +/- 0.76%) | 22 | 2.97 | $4.21 | Lillie's Determination ($20) |
| Mega hyper rare (gold) | 1-in-1260 (0.08% +/- 0.08%) | 2 | 0.03 | $179.88 | Mega Lucario ex ($206) |
| Double rare (ex) | 1-in-5 (20.91% +/- 1.12%) | 10 | 7.51 | $0.62 | Mega Kangaskhan ex ($1) |
Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $302 box price (Mega Evolution Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: all 5 rates were measured on this set's own packs (tcgplayer.com, 5,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 15.8% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $49 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (185 of 188 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.
Breadth: 67 cards up · 95 down · 21 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Night Stretcher (+28.6%).