Set deskNovember 2026
Obsidian Flames
$403Full set−8.5% 30 days
The sum of every card's real TCGplayer price, recorded daily.
$0.19 Median card229 Priced
Recorded low$403November 1, 2026All-time high$471September 11, 2026
From that high−14.3%set value today
First recorded$467when we started tracking, not a release
Dearer than2%1 of 56 recorded days were cheaper
Realized vol8%annualized, 56 days of daily returns
Max drawdown−14.4%recorded window
How these are measured
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Each return is the first recorded value inside its window against the last. We withhold it when the number of cards in the basket changed inside the window, when a single step moved more than 20%, or when the series cannot cover the window.
Ask about Obsidian Flames
Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
10 cards$273other 219$130
The short, expensive tail of the set.
If you are building it
You can own 219 of the 229 priced cards in Obsidian Flames for about $130. The median card is $0.19. The remaining $273 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Charizard ex - 223/197, $84) is 21% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 32% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Charizard ex - 223/197$83.56−15.9% 30d
Charizard ex - 228/197$36.25+7.3% 30d
Cleffa - 202/197$32.19−11.2% 30d
Ninetales - 199/197$31.09−11.4% 30d
Charizard ex - 215/197$21.49−7.1% 30d
Gloom - 198/197$17.98−8.2% 30d
Pidgeot ex - 225/197$15.53−16.0% 30d
Scizor - 205/197$12.61−9.1% 30d
Pidgey - 207/197$11.26−7.6% 30d
Lechonk - 209/197$11.05−11.2% 30d
| No. | Card | Market |
|---|---|---|
| 001/197 | OddishCommon | $0.12 |
| 002/197 | GloomCommon | $0.19 |
| 003/197 | BellossomUncommon | $0.24 |
| 004/197 | ScytherCommon | $0.27 |
| 005/197 | ShuckleCommon | $0.23 |
| 006/197 | SurskitCommon | $0.12 |
| 007/197 | MasquerainUncommon | $0.15 |
| 008/197 | CombeeCommon | $0.15 |
| 009/197 | FoongusCommon | $0.14 |
| 010/197 | AmoongussUncommon | $0.17 |
| 011/197 | PhantumpCommon | $0.13 |
| 012/197 | TrevenantUncommon | $0.14 |
| 013/197 | RowletCommon | $0.20 |
| 014/197 | DartrixUncommon | $0.14 |
| 015/197 | Decidueye exDouble rare | $1.02 |
| 016/197 | BounsweetCommon | $0.11 |
| 017/197 | SteeneeCommon | $0.14 |
| 018/197 | TsareenaUncommon | $0.19 |
| 019/197 | SmolivCommon | $0.10 |
| 020/197 | DollivCommon | $0.14 |
| 021/197 | ArbolivaUncommon | $0.20 |
| 022/197 | Toedscruel exDouble rare | $0.80 |
| 023/197 | CapsakidCommon | $0.15 |
| 024/197 | CapsakidCommon | $0.09 |
| 025/197 | ScovillainRare | $0.11 |
| 026/197 | CharmanderCommon | $0.23 |
| 027/197 | CharmeleonUncommon | $0.20 |
| 028/197 | VulpixCommon | $0.16 |
| 029/197 | NinetalesUncommon | $0.23 |
| 030/197 | EnteiRare | $0.19 |
| 031/197 | NumelCommon | $0.13 |
| 032/197 | CameruptUncommon | $0.13 |
| 033/197 | Victini exDouble rare | $0.96 |
| 034/197 | DarumakaCommon | $0.11 |
| 035/197 | DarmanitanUncommon | $0.17 |
| 036/197 | LitwickCommon | $0.17 |
| 037/197 | LampentCommon | $0.17 |
| 038/197 | ChandelureUncommon | $0.23 |
| 039/197 | HeatmorCommon | $0.14 |
| 040/197 | LarvestaCommon | $0.16 |
| 041/197 | VolcaronaUncommon | $0.16 |
| 042/197 | Eiscue exDouble rare | $0.74 |
| 043/197 | CharcadetCommon | $0.14 |
| 044/197 | ArmarougeUncommon | $0.22 |
| 045/197 | LaprasUncommon | $0.20 |
| 046/197 | CarvanhaCommon | $0.15 |
| 047/197 | SharpedoUncommon | $0.20 |
| 048/197 | BuizelCommon | $0.13 |
| 049/197 | FloatzelUncommon | $0.12 |
| 050/197 | TympoleCommon | $0.13 |
| 051/197 | PalpitoadCommon | $0.17 |
| 052/197 | SeismitoadUncommon | $0.20 |
| 053/197 | CubchooCommon | $0.12 |
| 054/197 | BearticUncommon | $0.16 |
| 055/197 | CryogonalCommon | $0.13 |
| 056/197 | FroakieCommon | $0.16 |
| 057/197 | FrogadierUncommon | $0.17 |
| 058/197 | WiglettCommon | $0.12 |
| 059/197 | WugtrioUncommon | $0.11 |
| 060/197 | FinizenCommon | $0.23 |
| 061/197 | FinizenCommon | $0.16 |
| 062/197 | PalafinRare | $0.14 |
| 063/197 | MagnemiteCommon | $0.05 |
| 064/197 | MagnetonCommon | $0.13 |
| 065/197 | MagnezoneUncommon | $0.16 |
| 066/197 | Tyranitar exDouble rare | $1.33 |
| 067/197 | TynamoCommon | $0.11 |
| 068/197 | EelektrikCommon | $0.14 |
| 069/197 | EelektrossUncommon | $0.18 |
| 070/197 | ThundurusRare | $0.11 |
| 071/197 | ToxelCommon | $0.21 |
| 072/197 | ToxtricityRare | $0.19 |
| 073/197 | Pawmot exDouble rare | $0.65 |
| 074/197 | TadbulbCommon | $0.10 |
| 075/197 | TadbulbCommon | $0.13 |
| 076/197 | TadbulbCommon | $0.20 |
| 077/197 | BelliboltUncommon | $0.20 |
| 078/197 | BelliboltUncommon | $0.20 |
| 079/197 | Miraidon exDouble rare | $0.90 |
| 080/197 | CleffaCommon | $0.36 |
| 081/197 | ClefairyCommon | $0.36 |
| 082/197 | Clefable exDouble rare | $1.38 |
| 083/197 | TogepiCommon | $0.20 |
| 084/197 | TogeticUncommon | $0.15 |
| 085/197 | TogekissRare | $0.18 |
| 086/197 | EspeonUncommon | $0.29 |
| 087/197 | SnubbullCommon | $0.13 |
| 088/197 | GranbullUncommon | $0.14 |
| 089/197 | MawileCommon | $0.20 |
| 090/197 | SpoinkCommon | $0.15 |
| 091/197 | GrumpigUncommon | $0.13 |
| 092/197 | LunatoneUncommon | $0.12 |
| 093/197 | SolrockUncommon | $0.15 |
| 094/197 | BaltoyCommon | $0.12 |
| 095/197 | ClaydolRare | $0.13 |
| 096/197 | Vespiquen exDouble rare | $0.85 |
| 097/197 | SinisteaCommon | $0.24 |
| 098/197 | PolteageistUncommon | $0.10 |
| 099/197 | GreavardCommon | $0.12 |
| 100/197 | GreavardCommon | $0.17 |
| 101/197 | HoundstoneUncommon | $0.17 |
| 102/197 | Houndstone exDouble rare | $0.98 |
| 103/197 | DiglettCommon | $0.19 |
| 104/197 | DugtrioUncommon | $0.18 |
| 105/197 | LarvitarCommon | $0.13 |
| 106/197 | PupitarUncommon | $0.16 |
| 107/197 | NosepassCommon | $0.13 |
| 108/197 | BarboachCommon | $0.16 |
| 109/197 | WhiscashUncommon | $0.15 |
| 110/197 | BonslyCommon | $0.17 |
| 111/197 | DrilburCommon | $0.13 |
| 112/197 | StunfiskUncommon | $0.11 |
| 113/197 | DiggersbyUncommon | $0.09 |
| 114/197 | CrabrawlerCommon | $0.14 |
| 115/197 | CrabominableUncommon | $0.11 |
| 116/197 | RockruffCommon | $0.15 |
| 117/197 | LycanrocUncommon | $0.12 |
| 118/197 | ToedscoolCommon | $0.05 |
| 119/197 | ToedscruelUncommon | $0.08 |
| 120/197 | Klawf exDouble rare | $0.96 |
| 121/197 | GlimmetCommon | $0.14 |
| 122/197 | GlimmetCommon | $0.12 |
| 123/197 | Glimmora exDouble rare | $0.72 |
| 124/197 | Koraidon exDouble rare | · |
| 125/197 | Charizard exDouble rare | $5.42 |
| 126/197 | Paldean WooperCommon | $0.20 |
| 127/197 | Paldean WooperCommon | $0.17 |
| 128/197 | Paldean ClodsireUncommon | $0.25 |
| 129/197 | Paldean ClodsireUncommon | $0.22 |
| 130/197 | UmbreonUncommon | $0.44 |
| 131/197 | HoundourCommon | $0.19 |
| 132/197 | HoundourCommon | $0.14 |
| 133/197 | HoundoomUncommon | $0.19 |
| 134/197 | Houndoom exDouble rare | $0.93 |
| 135/197 | Absol exDouble rare | $1.22 |
| 136/197 | DarkraiRare | $0.19 |
| 137/197 | InkayCommon | $0.11 |
| 138/197 | MalamarUncommon | $0.12 |
| 139/197 | SalanditCommon | $0.14 |
| 140/197 | SalazzleUncommon | $0.15 |
| 141/197 | ScizorRare | $0.20 |
| 142/197 | SkarmoryUncommon | $0.13 |
| 143/197 | MawileUncommon | $0.17 |
| 144/197 | BronzorCommon | $0.20 |
| 145/197 | BronzongUncommon | $0.15 |
| 146/197 | ProbopassUncommon | $0.15 |
| 147/197 | ExcadrillUncommon | $0.10 |
| 148/197 | PawniardCommon | $0.07 |
| 149/197 | BisharpCommon | $0.13 |
| 150/197 | KingambitUncommon | $0.21 |
| 151/197 | TogedemaruCommon | $0.16 |
| 152/197 | MeltanCommon | $0.13 |
| 153/197 | Melmetal exDouble rare | $0.89 |
| 154/197 | VaroomCommon | $0.19 |
| 155/197 | VaroomCommon | $0.14 |
| 156/197 | Revavroom exDouble rare | $0.81 |
| 157/197 | DratiniCommon | $0.23 |
| 158/197 | DragonairUncommon | $0.21 |
| 159/197 | Dragonite exDouble rare | $3.01 |
| 160/197 | AltariaUncommon | $0.23 |
| 161/197 | DrampaUncommon | $0.18 |
| 162/197 | PidgeyCommon | $0.22 |
| 163/197 | PidgeottoUncommon | $0.25 |
| 164/197 | Pidgeot exDouble rare | $1.23 |
| 165/197 | KangaskhanUncommon | $0.18 |
| 166/197 | EeveeCommon | $0.36 |
| 167/197 | ZigzagoonCommon | $0.14 |
| 168/197 | LinooneUncommon | $0.18 |
| 169/197 | SwabluCommon | $0.16 |
| 170/197 | LillipupCommon | $0.19 |
| 171/197 | HerdierCommon | $0.13 |
| 172/197 | StoutlandUncommon | $0.19 |
| 173/197 | AudinoCommon | $0.15 |
| 174/197 | BouffalantUncommon | $0.17 |
| 175/197 | BunnelbyCommon | $0.12 |
| 176/197 | YungoosCommon | $0.19 |
| 177/197 | GumshoosUncommon | $0.12 |
| 178/197 | SkwovetCommon | $0.19 |
| 179/197 | Greedent exDouble rare | $0.93 |
| 180/197 | LechonkCommon | $0.26 |
| 181/197 | LechonkCommon | $0.19 |
| 182/197 | LechonkCommon | $0.17 |
| 183/197 | OinkologneUncommon | $0.15 |
| 184/197 | OinkologneUncommon | $0.20 |
| 185/197 | FlamigoUncommon | $0.11 |
| 186/197 | ArvenUncommon | $0.27 |
| 187/197 | BrassiusUncommon | $0.19 |
| 188/197 | GeetaRare | $0.16 |
| 189/197 | Letter of EncouragementUncommon | $0.25 |
| 190/197 | OrtegaUncommon | $0.23 |
| 191/197 | Patrol CapUncommon | $0.19 |
| 192/197 | Pokémon League HeadquartersUncommon | $0.23 |
| 193/197 | PoppyUncommon | $0.21 |
| 194/197 | RymeCommon | $0.13 |
| 195/197 | Team Star GruntUncommon | $0.21 |
| 196/197 | Town StoreCommon | $0.21 |
| 197/197 | Vengeful PunchUncommon | $0.23 |
| 198/197 | GloomIllustration rare | $17.98 |
| 199/197 | NinetalesIllustration rare | $31.09 |
| 200/197 | PalafinIllustration rare | $3.57 |
| 201/197 | BelliboltIllustration rare | $5.09 |
| 202/197 | CleffaIllustration rare | $32.19 |
| 203/197 | LarvitarIllustration rare | $5.29 |
| 204/197 | HoundourIllustration rare | $10.35 |
| 205/197 | ScizorIllustration rare | $12.61 |
| 206/197 | VaroomIllustration rare | $2.59 |
| 207/197 | PidgeyIllustration rare | $11.26 |
| 208/197 | PidgeottoIllustration rare | $9.93 |
| 209/197 | LechonkIllustration rare | $11.05 |
| 210/197 | Eiscue exUltra Rare | $1.43 |
| 211/197 | Tyranitar exUltra Rare | $4.73 |
| 212/197 | Vespiquen exUltra Rare | $1.20 |
| 213/197 | Glimmora exUltra Rare | $0.88 |
| 214/197 | Absol exUltra Rare | $2.48 |
| 215/197 | Charizard exUltra Rare | $21.49 |
| 216/197 | Revavroom exUltra Rare | $0.93 |
| 217/197 | Pidgeot exUltra Rare | $1.69 |
| 218/197 | GeetaUltra Rare | $0.74 |
| 219/197 | OrtegaUltra Rare | $1.10 |
| 220/197 | PoppyUltra Rare | $1.05 |
| 221/197 | RymeUltra Rare | $0.85 |
| 222/197 | Eiscue exSpecial illustration rare | $6.09 |
| 223/197 | Charizard exSpecial illustration rare | $83.56 |
| 224/197 | Revavroom exSpecial illustration rare | $4.88 |
| 225/197 | Pidgeot exSpecial illustration rare | $15.53 |
| 226/197 | GeetaSpecial illustration rare | $3.08 |
| 227/197 | PoppySpecial illustration rare | $2.43 |
| 228/197 | Charizard exHyper rare | $36.25 |
| 229/197 | ArtazonHyper rare | $1.51 |
| 230/197 | Basic Fire EnergyHyper rare | $3.06 |
Show all 230Show fewer
Every Obsidian Flames card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.
- chase card · Charizard ex - 223/197$83.56
- sealed booster box · Obsidian Flames$377.53
Cheaper than the box
The single most valuable card in this set costs $293.97 less than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, quoted October 31, 2026.
22.1% of the box. Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.
The chase, priced in packsCharizard ex ($83.56) lands about once per 192 packs · ~5.3 booster boxes · $2,013 of packs at today's box price
| Tier | Odds per pack | Expected per box |
|---|---|---|
| Double rare (ex) | 1 in 7 | 5.14 |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1 in 15 | 2.4 |
| Illustration rare | 1 in 13 | 2.77 |
| Special illustration rare | 1 in 32 | 1.13 |
| Hyper rare (gold) | 1 in 52 | 0.69 |
Where these odds come from
Odds are measured rates from TCGplayer Infinite pull-rate study (8,000+ packs); The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.
Cheapest recorded route to packsObsidian Flames Booster Box $10.49/pack
Biggest 30-day moveObsidian Flames Single Blister Pack [Revavroom] +4.5%
Show all 24Show fewer
Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes
Should you rip Obsidian Flames?
0.0%
of boxes beat the $378 box price
- Bottom 5%$79
- Median box$128
- Expected value$140
- Top 5%$234
Where 10,000 boxes landed
3.0%$0-75
62.3%$75-150
28.2%$150-225
5.8%$225-300
0.7%$300-375
0.1%$375-450
Red buckets end below the $378 box price. 84.0% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.0% doubled it.
How the simulation works, tier by tier
We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Obsidian Flames using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($378, $10.49/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 37.0% of the box ask on average.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
| Hit tier | Published rate | Pool | Avg / box | Mean value | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration rare | 1-in-13 | 12 | 2.77 | $12.79 | Cleffa ($32) |
| Special illustration rare | 1-in-32 | 6 | 1.13 | $19.51 | Charizard ex ($85) |
| Hyper rare (gold) | 1-in-52 | 3 | 0.7 | $13.14 | Charizard ex ($35) |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1-in-15 | 12 | 2.4 | $3.15 | Charizard ex ($21) |
| Double rare (ex) | 1-in-7 | 21 | 5.11 | $1.26 | Charizard ex ($5) |
Not simulated. ACE SPEC rare: rated at 1-in-20 (4.94% +/- 0.46%) by the study, but our catalog holds no card of this tier for this set. A tier nobody has published a rate for is left out rather than folded into a neighboring tier.
Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $378 box price (Obsidian Flames Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: all 5 rates were measured on this set's own packs (tcgplayer.com, 8,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 25.0% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $58 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (230 of 230 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.
Breadth: 109 cards up · 91 down · 29 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Eiscue ex - 222/197 (+12.3%).