Set deskNovember 2026
Twilight Masquerade
$1,099Full set−13.4% 30 days
The sum of every card's real TCGplayer price, recorded daily.
$0.2 Median card226 Priced
Recorded low$1,099November 1, 2026All-time high$1,342September 8, 2026
From that high−18.1%set value today
First recorded$1,342when we started tracking, not a release
Dearer than0%0 of 56 recorded days were cheaper
Realized vol7%annualized, 56 days of daily returns
Max drawdown−18.1%recorded window
How these are measured
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Each return is the first recorded value inside its window against the last. We withhold it when the number of cards in the basket changed inside the window, when a single step moved more than 20%, or when the series cannot cover the window.
Ask about Twilight Masquerade
Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
10 cards$703other 216$396
The short, expensive tail of the set.
If you are building it
You can own 216 of the 226 priced cards in Twilight Masquerade for about $396. The median card is $0.2. The remaining $703 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Greninja ex - 214/167, $246) is 22% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 36% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Greninja ex - 214/167$246−25.2% 30d
Perrin - 220/167$143−12.0% 30d
Eevee - 188/167$69.89−19.3% 30d
Chansey - 187/167$44.35−18.7% 30d
Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex - 216/167$42.75−6.6% 30d
Carmine - 217/167$41.96−16.4% 30d
Sinistcha ex - 210/167$34.24−1.7% 30d
Lana's Aid - 219/167$29−18.1% 30d
Kieran - 218/167$26.65−5.3% 30d
Hisuian Growlithe - 181/167$24.9−12.5% 30d
| No. | Card | Market |
|---|---|---|
| 001/167 | TangelaCommon | $0.15 |
| 002/167 | TangrowthCommon | $0.13 |
| 003/167 | PinsirCommon | $0.14 |
| 004/167 | SpinarakCommon | $0.03 |
| 005/167 | AriadosUncommon | $0.11 |
| 006/167 | SunkernCommon | $0.07 |
| 007/167 | SunfloraUncommon | $0.17 |
| 008/167 | HeracrossUncommon | $0.17 |
| 009/167 | VolbeatCommon | $0.17 |
| 010/167 | IllumiseCommon | $0.18 |
| 011/167 | LeafeonUncommon | $0.27 |
| 012/167 | PhantumpCommon | $0.11 |
| 013/167 | TrevenantCommon | $0.13 |
| 014/167 | GrookeyCommon | $0.19 |
| 015/167 | ThwackeyCommon | $0.40 |
| 016/167 | RillaboomUncommon | $0.17 |
| 017/167 | ApplinCommon | $0.13 |
| 018/167 | DipplinUncommon | $0.13 |
| 019/167 | Iron LeavesRare | $0.18 |
| 020/167 | PoltchageistCommon | $0.14 |
| 021/167 | PoltchageistCommon | $0.17 |
| 022/167 | SinistchaRare | $0.16 |
| 023/167 | Sinistcha exDouble rare | $0.53 |
| 024/167 | Teal Mask OgerponRare | $0.18 |
| 025/167 | Teal Mask Ogerpon exDouble rare | $2.30 |
| 026/167 | VulpixCommon | $0.18 |
| 027/167 | NinetalesCommon | $0.20 |
| 028/167 | SlugmaCommon | $0.04 |
| 029/167 | Magcargo exDouble rare | $0.56 |
| 030/167 | TorkoalCommon | $0.18 |
| 031/167 | ChimcharCommon | $0.17 |
| 032/167 | MonfernoCommon | $0.20 |
| 033/167 | InfernapeRare | $0.22 |
| 034/167 | DarumakaCommon | $0.03 |
| 035/167 | DarmanitanUncommon | $0.05 |
| 036/167 | LitwickCommon | $0.15 |
| 037/167 | LampentCommon | $0.20 |
| 038/167 | ChandelureRare | $0.24 |
| 039/167 | Chi-YuUncommon | $0.22 |
| 040/167 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon exDouble rare | $0.55 |
| 041/167 | PoliwagCommon | $0.14 |
| 042/167 | PoliwhirlCommon | $0.21 |
| 043/167 | PoliwrathUncommon | $0.19 |
| 044/167 | GoldeenCommon | $0.15 |
| 045/167 | SeakingCommon | $0.13 |
| 046/167 | JynxCommon | $0.17 |
| 047/167 | CorphishCommon | $0.07 |
| 048/167 | CrawdauntCommon | $0.13 |
| 049/167 | FeebasCommon | $0.13 |
| 050/167 | MiloticUncommon | $0.18 |
| 051/167 | SnoruntCommon | $0.19 |
| 052/167 | GlalieUncommon | $0.13 |
| 053/167 | FroslassRare | $0.30 |
| 054/167 | GlaceonUncommon | $0.23 |
| 055/167 | PhioneCommon | $0.20 |
| 056/167 | FroakieCommon | $0.25 |
| 057/167 | FrogadierCommon | $0.19 |
| 058/167 | CramorantUncommon | $0.14 |
| 059/167 | FinizenCommon | $0.13 |
| 060/167 | PalafinUncommon | $0.13 |
| 061/167 | Palafin exDouble rare | $0.57 |
| 062/167 | Iron BundleUncommon | $0.13 |
| 063/167 | Walking WakeRare | $0.17 |
| 064/167 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon exDouble rare | $0.72 |
| 065/167 | ZapdosRare | $0.26 |
| 066/167 | ShinxCommon | $0.17 |
| 067/167 | LuxioCommon | $0.19 |
| 068/167 | Luxray exDouble rare | $0.72 |
| 069/167 | EmolgaCommon | $0.06 |
| 070/167 | HelioptileCommon | $0.12 |
| 071/167 | HelioliskCommon | $0.15 |
| 072/167 | MorpekoUncommon | $0.24 |
| 073/167 | TadbulbCommon | $0.14 |
| 074/167 | BelliboltUncommon | $0.15 |
| 075/167 | WattrelCommon | $0.11 |
| 076/167 | KilowattrelUncommon | $0.05 |
| 077/167 | Iron Thorns exDouble rare | $0.72 |
| 078/167 | ClefairyCommon | $0.19 |
| 079/167 | ClefableUncommon | $0.16 |
| 080/167 | AbraCommon | $0.19 |
| 081/167 | KadabraCommon | $0.23 |
| 082/167 | AlakazamRare | $0.30 |
| 083/167 | GirafarigCommon | $0.21 |
| 084/167 | FarigirafUncommon | $0.16 |
| 085/167 | ChimechoCommon | $0.15 |
| 086/167 | FlabébéCommon | $0.18 |
| 087/167 | FloetteCommon | $0.22 |
| 088/167 | FlorgesUncommon | $0.15 |
| 089/167 | SwirlixCommon | $0.15 |
| 090/167 | SlurpuffUncommon | $0.18 |
| 091/167 | SandygastCommon | $0.23 |
| 092/167 | PalossandCommon | $0.13 |
| 093/167 | EnamorusRare | $0.23 |
| 094/167 | Scream Tail exDouble rare | $0.59 |
| 095/167 | MunkidoriRare | $0.30 |
| 096/167 | FezandipitiRare | $0.20 |
| 097/167 | SandshrewCommon | $0.06 |
| 098/167 | SandslashUncommon | $0.14 |
| 099/167 | Hisuian GrowlitheCommon | $0.12 |
| 100/167 | Hisuian ArcanineRare | $0.29 |
| 101/167 | NosepassCommon | $0.07 |
| 102/167 | ProbopassUncommon | $0.11 |
| 103/167 | TimburrCommon | $0.06 |
| 104/167 | GurdurrCommon | $0.17 |
| 105/167 | ConkeldurrUncommon | $0.12 |
| 106/167 | Greninja exDouble rare | $1.94 |
| 107/167 | HawluchaCommon | $0.20 |
| 108/167 | GlimmetCommon | $0.07 |
| 109/167 | GlimmoraUncommon | $0.11 |
| 110/167 | Ting-LuRare | $0.16 |
| 111/167 | OkidogiRare | $0.22 |
| 112/167 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon exDouble rare | $0.79 |
| 113/167 | PoochyenaCommon | $0.07 |
| 114/167 | MightyenaUncommon | $0.11 |
| 115/167 | VenipedeCommon | $0.14 |
| 116/167 | WhirlipedeCommon | $0.19 |
| 117/167 | ScolipedeUncommon | $0.13 |
| 118/167 | Brute BonnetUncommon | $0.20 |
| 119/167 | SkarmoryCommon | $0.11 |
| 120/167 | AronCommon | $0.16 |
| 121/167 | LaironCommon | $0.18 |
| 122/167 | AggronUncommon | $0.19 |
| 123/167 | HeatranRare | $0.20 |
| 124/167 | VaroomCommon | $0.04 |
| 125/167 | RevavroomUncommon | $0.05 |
| 126/167 | ApplinCommon | $0.12 |
| 127/167 | DipplinUncommon | $0.11 |
| 128/167 | DreepyCommon | $0.18 |
| 129/167 | DrakloakCommon | $0.30 |
| 130/167 | Dragapult exDouble rare | $1.34 |
| 131/167 | TatsugiriUncommon | $0.23 |
| 132/167 | Farfetch'dCommon | $0.18 |
| 133/167 | ChanseyCommon | $0.21 |
| 134/167 | Blissey exDouble rare | $0.64 |
| 135/167 | EeveeCommon | $0.26 |
| 136/167 | SnorlaxUncommon | $0.23 |
| 137/167 | AipomCommon | $0.11 |
| 138/167 | AmbipomUncommon | $0.06 |
| 139/167 | DucklettCommon | $0.12 |
| 140/167 | SwannaUncommon | $0.15 |
| 141/167 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna exDouble rare | $0.76 |
| 142/167 | Accompanying FluteUncommon | $0.17 |
| 143/167 | Bug Catching SetUncommon | $0.22 |
| 144/167 | CaretakerCommon | $0.08 |
| 145/167 | CarmineUncommon | $0.18 |
| 146/167 | Community CenterUncommon | $0.09 |
| 147/167 | CookUncommon | $0.15 |
| 148/167 | Enhanced HammerUncommon | $0.18 |
| 149/167 | Festival GroundsUncommon | $0.12 |
| 150/167 | Handheld FanUncommon | $0.26 |
| 151/167 | HasselUncommon | $0.17 |
| 152/167 | Hyper AromaACE SPEC Rare | $0.36 |
| 153/167 | Jamming TowerUncommon | $0.26 |
| 154/167 | KieranUncommon | $0.25 |
| 155/167 | Lana's AidUncommon | $0.29 |
| 156/167 | Love BallUncommon | $0.18 |
| 157/167 | LucianUncommon | $0.19 |
| 158/167 | Lucky HelmetUncommon | $0.26 |
| 159/167 | Ogre's MaskUncommon | $0.07 |
| 160/167 | PerrinUncommon | $0.06 |
| 161/167 | RaifortUncommon | $0.08 |
| 162/167 | Scoop Up CycloneACE SPEC Rare | $0.37 |
| 163/167 | Secret BoxACE SPEC Rare | $5.60 |
| 164/167 | Survival BraceACE SPEC Rare | $0.30 |
| 165/167 | Unfair StampACE SPEC Rare | $17.35 |
| 166/167 | Boomerang EnergyUncommon | $0.17 |
| 167/167 | Legacy EnergyACE SPEC Rare | $4.54 |
| 168/167 | PinsirIllustration rare | $13.29 |
| 169/167 | SunfloraIllustration rare | $7.20 |
| 170/167 | DipplinIllustration rare | $12.07 |
| 171/167 | PoltchageistIllustration rare | $5.09 |
| 172/167 | TorkoalIllustration rare | $6.12 |
| 173/167 | InfernapeIllustration rare | $12.77 |
| 174/167 | FroslassIllustration rare | $8.26 |
| 175/167 | PhioneIllustration rare | $11.84 |
| 176/167 | CramorantIllustration rare | $4.03 |
| 177/167 | HelioliskIllustration rare | $4.44 |
| 178/167 | WattrelIllustration rare | $5.04 |
| 179/167 | ChimechoIllustration rare | $5.25 |
| 180/167 | EnamorusIllustration rare | $7.21 |
| 181/167 | Hisuian GrowlitheIllustration rare | $24.90 |
| 182/167 | ProbopassIllustration rare | $4.18 |
| 183/167 | TimburrIllustration rare | $6.17 |
| 184/167 | LaironIllustration rare | $5.47 |
| 185/167 | ApplinIllustration rare | $14.79 |
| 186/167 | TatsugiriIllustration rare | $21.40 |
| 187/167 | ChanseyIllustration rare | $44.35 |
| 188/167 | EeveeIllustration rare | $69.89 |
| 189/167 | Sinistcha exUltra Rare | $1.67 |
| 190/167 | Teal Mask Ogerpon exUltra Rare | $4.61 |
| 191/167 | Magcargo exUltra Rare | $1.47 |
| 192/167 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon exUltra Rare | $2.08 |
| 193/167 | Palafin exUltra Rare | $1.36 |
| 194/167 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon exUltra Rare | $2.92 |
| 195/167 | Luxray exUltra Rare | $3.05 |
| 196/167 | Iron Thorns exUltra Rare | $2.69 |
| 197/167 | Scream Tail exUltra Rare | $2.71 |
| 198/167 | Greninja exUltra Rare | $13.86 |
| 199/167 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon exUltra Rare | $3.70 |
| 200/167 | Dragapult exUltra Rare | $8.97 |
| 201/167 | Blissey exUltra Rare | $4.99 |
| 202/167 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna exUltra Rare | $2.19 |
| 203/167 | CaretakerUltra Rare | $0.84 |
| 204/167 | CarmineUltra Rare | $3.18 |
| 205/167 | HasselUltra Rare | $1.53 |
| 206/167 | KieranUltra Rare | $3.45 |
| 207/167 | Lana's AidUltra Rare | $5.78 |
| 208/167 | LucianUltra Rare | $1.28 |
| 209/167 | PerrinUltra Rare | $4.75 |
| 210/167 | Sinistcha exSpecial illustration rare | $34.24 |
| 211/167 | Teal Mask Ogerpon exSpecial illustration rare | $20.11 |
| 212/167 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon exSpecial illustration rare | $10.22 |
| 213/167 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon exSpecial illustration rare | $14.60 |
| 214/167 | Greninja exSpecial illustration rare | $246.43 |
| 215/167 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon exSpecial illustration rare | $11.03 |
| 216/167 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna exSpecial illustration rare | $42.75 |
| 217/167 | CarmineSpecial illustration rare | $41.96 |
| 218/167 | KieranSpecial illustration rare | $26.65 |
| 219/167 | Lana's AidSpecial illustration rare | $29.00 |
| 220/167 | PerrinSpecial illustration rare | $142.64 |
| 221/167 | Teal Mask Ogerpon exHyper rare | $9.13 |
| 222/167 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna exHyper rare | $8.40 |
| 223/167 | Buddy-Buddy PoffinHyper rare | $11.87 |
| 224/167 | Enhanced HammerHyper rare | $6.38 |
| 225/167 | Rescue BoardHyper rare | $2.61 |
| 226/167 | Luminous EnergyHyper rare | $4.84 |
Show all 226Show fewer
Every Twilight Masquerade card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.
- chase card · Greninja ex - 214/167$246.43
- sealed booster box · Twilight Masquerade$333.04
Cheaper than the box
The single most valuable card in this set costs $86.61 less than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, quoted October 30, 2026.
74.0% of the box. Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.
The chase, priced in packsGreninja ex ($246.43) lands about once per 941 packs · ~26.1 booster boxes · $8,705 of packs at today's box price
| Tier | Odds per pack | Expected per box |
|---|---|---|
| Double rare (ex) | 1 in 6 | 6 |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1 in 15 | 2.4 |
| Illustration rare | 1 in 13 | 2.77 |
| Special illustration rare | 1 in 86 | 0.42 |
| Hyper rare (gold) | 1 in 146 | 0.25 |
Where these odds come from
Odds are measured rates from TCGplayer Infinite pull-rate study (8,000+ packs); The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.
Cheapest recorded route to packsTwilight Masquerade Booster Box $9.24/pack
Biggest 30-day moveTwilight Masquerade Premium Checklane Blister [Lokix] +23.1%
Show all 24Show fewer
Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes
Should you rip Twilight Masquerade?
3.6%
of boxes beat the $333 box price
- Bottom 5%$79
- Median box$123
- Expected value$142
- Top 5%$282
Where 10,000 boxes landed
25.8%$0-100
61.6%$100-200
8.0%$200-300
3.6%$300-400
0.8%$400-500
0.1%$500-600
0.1%$600-700
0.0%$700-800
Red buckets end below the $333 box price. 77.9% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.0% doubled it.
How the simulation works, tier by tier
We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Twilight Masquerade using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($333, $9.25/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 42.7% of the box ask on average.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
| Hit tier | Published rate | Pool | Avg / box | Mean value | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration rare | 1-in-13 | 21 | 2.73 | $13.97 | Eevee ($70) |
| Special illustration rare | 1-in-86 | 11 | 0.42 | $56.34 | Greninja ex ($246) |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1-in-15 | 21 | 2.41 | $3.67 | Greninja ex ($14) |
| ACE SPEC rare | 1-in-20 (4.94% +/- 0.46%) (inherited) | 6 | 1.77 | $4.46 | Unfair Stamp ($15) |
| Double rare (ex) | 1-in-6 | 14 | 5.99 | $0.85 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex ($2) |
| Hyper rare (gold) | 1-in-146 | 6 | 0.25 | $7.25 | Buddy-Buddy Poffin ($12) |
Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $333 box price (Twilight Masquerade Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: 5 of 6 rates were measured on this set; the rest are inherited from an era study of 8,000+ packs, not measured on this set (the study opened packs of Stellar Crown) (tcgplayer.com, 8,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 22.8% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $56 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (225 of 226 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.
Breadth: 91 cards up · 105 down · 27 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex - 202/167 (+36.0%).