Every set page on moonstone now carries measured pull rates, sourced from published large-sample studies (mostly TCGplayer's Authentication Center, which rips 700 to 8,000+ packs per set). Put those odds beside the booster box prices we track and the price of the chase card itself, and one number falls out: what it actually costs to pull the chase from packs, versus just buying the card. The answer is never close. The gentlest set on the board makes ripping 6.3x more expensive than buying; the harshest makes it 85.7x.
The table
The rip tax, set by set
| Set | Chase | Odds (packs) | Pack cost | Card price | Rip tax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution | Mega Lucario ex (gold) | ~1 in 2,520* | $22,415 | $261.69 | 85.7x |
| Perfect Order | Mega Zygarde ex (gold) | ~1 in 1,786* | $8,641 | $123.77 | 69.8x |
| Evolving Skies | Umbreon VMAX | ~1 in 2,000 | $136,584 | $2,298.34 | 59.4x |
| Scarlet & Violet | Gardevoir ex | 1 in 318 | $2,612 | $71.69 | 36.4x |
| Journey Together | Lillie's Clefairy ex | 1 in 518 | $3,474 | $103.96 | 33.4x |
| Surging Sparks | Pikachu ex | 1 in 960 | $8,129 | $289.41 | 28.1x |
| Paradox Rift | Groudon | ~1 in 442* | $3,347 | $119.71 | 28.0x |
| Temporal Forces | Gastly | ~1 in 286* | $2,481 | $94.98 | 26.1x |
| Destined Rivals | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | 1 in 1,033 | $11,899 | $465.81 | 25.5x |
| Twilight Masquerade | Greninja ex | 1 in 941 | $9,033 | $364.56 | 24.8x |
| Lost Origin | Giratina V | 1 in 804 | $16,281 | $832.41 | 19.6x |
| Obsidian Flames | Charizard ex | 1 in 192 | $1,951 | $104.24 | 18.7x |
| Silver Tempest | Lugia V | 1 in 674 | $9,496 | $527.13 | 18.0x |
| Paldea Evolved | Magikarp | ~1 in 468* | $6,099 | $374.77 | 16.3x |
| Stellar Crown | Squirtle | ~1 in 169* | $1,474 | $114.90 | 12.8x |
| Phantasmal Flames | Mega Charizard X ex | ~1 in 400 | $4,387 | $696.72 | 6.3x |
Rows marked * use a derived rate: the study measured the tier's odds and we divide by the number of cards in the tier, assuming each is equally likely within its slot. Every other row uses the study's own measured rate for a specific card. The pack price is the set's tracked 36-pack booster box divided by 36, so cheap boxes forgive a lot: Obsidian Flames has the best measured chase odds on the board (1 in 192 packs for its SIR Charizard ex) AND a $365.73 box, which is why it lands near the bottom of the tax table.
What the number is and is not
The rip tax is not a verdict on opening packs, which pays out the rest of the box too: the other hits, the bulk, and the fun, none of which this number counts. It is a verdict on ripping FOR a specific card. On that question the market is unanimous: sellers price singles far below the expected cost of pulling them, because pack openers collectively eat the difference. The gentler framing is that every chase card's price is a roughly 84 to 98 percent discount on its expected pack cost. Phantasmal Flames at 6.3x is the closest the hobby gets to fair rip odds, and it still means paying $4,387 of packs for a $697 card.
Pull rates are from published large-sample studies, chiefly TCGplayer Infinite's per-set pull-rate series (1,500 to 8,000+ packs per set; sources and sample sizes are shown on each set's page under Pull rates). Chase odds marked with * are derived as tier odds multiplied by the tier's card count, uniform within the slot; unmarked odds are the study's own measured specific-card rate. Card prices are moonstone canonical prices and box prices are the exact tracked 36-pack SKU, both as of September 7, 2026. Expected pack cost = expected packs x (box price / 36). Sets without a measured study or a tracked box are excluded, not estimated; The Pokemon Company publishes no official odds.