Set deskNovember 2026
Surging Sparks
$1,063Full set−11.4% 30 days
The sum of every card's real TCGplayer price, recorded daily.
$0.17 Median card251 Priced
Recorded low$1,062November 1, 2026All-time high$1,257September 10, 2026
From that high−15.5%set value today
First recorded$1,256when we started tracking, not a release
Dearer than2%1 of 56 recorded days were cheaper
Realized vol6%annualized, 56 days of daily returns
Max drawdown−15.5%recorded window
How these are measured
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Each return is the first recorded value inside its window against the last. We withhold it when the number of cards in the basket changed inside the window, when a single step moved more than 20%, or when the series cannot cover the window.
Ask about Surging Sparks
Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
10 cards$741other 241$322
The short, expensive tail of the set.
If you are building it
You can own 241 of the 251 priced cards in Surging Sparks for about $322. The median card is $0.17. The remaining $741 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Pikachu ex - 238/191, $243) is 23% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 30% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Pikachu ex - 238/191$243−14.6% 30d
Latias ex - 239/191$168−10.0% 30d
Milotic ex - 237/191$102−13.4% 30d
Pikachu ex - 247/191$67.45−15.4% 30d
Durant ex - 236/191$33.47−15.7% 30d
Hydreigon ex - 240/191$30.6−16.4% 30d
Latios - 203/191$29.3−7.8% 30d
Alolan Exeggutor ex - 242/191$23.51−9.6% 30d
Pikachu ex - 219/191$22.98−18.6% 30d
Lisia's Appeal - 246/191$21.02−19.8% 30d
| No. | Card | Market |
|---|---|---|
| 001/191 | ExeggcuteCommon | $0.22 |
| 002/191 | ExeggcuteCommon | $0.12 |
| 003/191 | ExeggutorUncommon | $0.07 |
| 004/191 | Durant exDouble rare | $0.52 |
| 005/191 | ScatterbugCommon | $0.12 |
| 006/191 | SpewpaCommon | $0.12 |
| 007/191 | VivillonUncommon | $0.17 |
| 008/191 | MorelullCommon | $0.09 |
| 009/191 | ShiinoticUncommon | $0.06 |
| 010/191 | DhelmiseCommon | $0.10 |
| 011/191 | ZarudeRare | $0.18 |
| 012/191 | CapsakidCommon | $0.03 |
| 013/191 | RellorCommon | $0.17 |
| 014/191 | RabscaRare | $0.19 |
| 015/191 | Wo-ChienUncommon | $0.09 |
| 016/191 | VulpixCommon | $0.22 |
| 017/191 | NinetalesUncommon | $0.23 |
| 018/191 | Paldean TaurosUncommon | $0.13 |
| 019/191 | Ho-OhUncommon | $0.17 |
| 020/191 | Castform Sunny FormCommon | $0.09 |
| 021/191 | VictiniUncommon | $0.24 |
| 022/191 | PansearCommon | $0.05 |
| 023/191 | SimisearCommon | $0.06 |
| 024/191 | LarvestaCommon | $0.07 |
| 025/191 | VolcaronaCommon | $0.06 |
| 026/191 | OricorioCommon | $0.14 |
| 027/191 | SizzlipedeCommon | $0.06 |
| 028/191 | CentiskorchCommon | $0.17 |
| 029/191 | FuecocoCommon | $0.14 |
| 030/191 | CrocalorCommon | $0.13 |
| 031/191 | SkeledirgeRare | $0.20 |
| 032/191 | CharcadetCommon | $0.26 |
| 033/191 | CharcadetCommon | $0.14 |
| 034/191 | ArmarougeUncommon | $0.14 |
| 035/191 | CeruledgeUncommon | $0.20 |
| 036/191 | Ceruledge exDouble rare | $1.00 |
| 037/191 | Scovillain exDouble rare | $0.48 |
| 038/191 | Gouging FireRare | $0.18 |
| 039/191 | Paldean TaurosUncommon | $0.14 |
| 040/191 | MantineCommon | $0.09 |
| 041/191 | FeebasCommon | $0.13 |
| 042/191 | Milotic exDouble rare | $0.61 |
| 043/191 | SphealCommon | $0.16 |
| 044/191 | SealeoCommon | $0.12 |
| 045/191 | WalreinUncommon | $0.13 |
| 046/191 | ShellosCommon | $0.10 |
| 047/191 | CryogonalCommon | $0.05 |
| 048/191 | Black Kyurem exDouble rare | $0.65 |
| 049/191 | BruxishUncommon | $0.12 |
| 050/191 | QuaxlyCommon | $0.05 |
| 051/191 | QuaxwellCommon | $0.08 |
| 052/191 | QuaquavalUncommon | $0.12 |
| 053/191 | CetoddleCommon | $0.08 |
| 054/191 | CetitanCommon | $0.05 |
| 055/191 | Iron BundleUncommon | $0.14 |
| 056/191 | Chien-PaoRare | $0.21 |
| 057/191 | Pikachu exDouble rare | $4.58 |
| 058/191 | MagnemiteCommon | $0.11 |
| 059/191 | MagnetonUncommon | $0.12 |
| 060/191 | MagnezoneUncommon | $0.12 |
| 061/191 | RotomCommon | $0.10 |
| 062/191 | BlitzleCommon | $0.05 |
| 063/191 | ZebstrikaCommon | $0.11 |
| 064/191 | StunfiskCommon | $0.08 |
| 065/191 | Tapu KokoRare | $0.16 |
| 066/191 | WattrelCommon | $0.03 |
| 067/191 | KilowattrelUncommon | $0.05 |
| 068/191 | Kilowattrel exDouble rare | $0.58 |
| 069/191 | MiraidonUncommon | $0.11 |
| 070/191 | TogepiCommon | $0.16 |
| 071/191 | TogeticCommon | $0.18 |
| 072/191 | TogekissRare | $0.21 |
| 073/191 | MarillCommon | $0.14 |
| 074/191 | AzumarillUncommon | $0.04 |
| 075/191 | SmoochumCommon | $0.25 |
| 076/191 | Latias exDouble rare | $5.95 |
| 077/191 | LatiosUncommon | $0.16 |
| 078/191 | UxieCommon | $0.21 |
| 079/191 | MespritCommon | $0.19 |
| 080/191 | AzelfCommon | $0.14 |
| 081/191 | SigilyphCommon | $0.12 |
| 082/191 | YamaskCommon | $0.08 |
| 083/191 | CofagrigusRare | $0.24 |
| 084/191 | EspurrCommon | $0.15 |
| 085/191 | MeowsticUncommon | $0.07 |
| 086/191 | Sylveon exDouble rare | $2.85 |
| 087/191 | DedenneCommon | $0.20 |
| 088/191 | XerneasUncommon | $0.15 |
| 089/191 | OricorioCommon | $0.07 |
| 090/191 | SandygastCommon | $0.04 |
| 091/191 | Palossand exDouble rare | $0.52 |
| 092/191 | Tapu LeleRare | $0.16 |
| 093/191 | IndeedeeUncommon | $0.14 |
| 094/191 | FlittleCommon | $0.04 |
| 095/191 | EspathraUncommon | $0.06 |
| 096/191 | Flutter ManeUncommon | $0.06 |
| 097/191 | GimmighoulCommon | $0.26 |
| 098/191 | MankeyCommon | $0.11 |
| 099/191 | PrimeapeCommon | $0.18 |
| 100/191 | AnnihilapeUncommon | $0.21 |
| 101/191 | Paldean TaurosUncommon | $0.16 |
| 102/191 | PhanpyCommon | $0.15 |
| 103/191 | DonphanCommon | $0.06 |
| 104/191 | TrapinchCommon | $0.12 |
| 105/191 | VibravaCommon | $0.18 |
| 106/191 | Flygon exDouble rare | $0.56 |
| 107/191 | GastrodonRare | $0.20 |
| 108/191 | DrilburCommon | $0.04 |
| 109/191 | ExcadrillCommon | $0.12 |
| 110/191 | LandorusRare | $0.19 |
| 111/191 | PassimianUncommon | $0.22 |
| 112/191 | ClobbopusCommon | $0.07 |
| 113/191 | GrapploctCommon | $0.13 |
| 114/191 | GlimmetCommon | $0.07 |
| 115/191 | GlimmoraCommon | $0.10 |
| 116/191 | KoraidonUncommon | $0.12 |
| 117/191 | DeinoCommon | $0.19 |
| 118/191 | ZweilousCommon | $0.16 |
| 119/191 | Hydreigon exDouble rare | $0.79 |
| 120/191 | ShroodleCommon | $0.06 |
| 121/191 | GrafaiaiUncommon | $0.05 |
| 122/191 | Alolan DiglettCommon | $0.12 |
| 123/191 | Alolan DugtrioUncommon | $0.06 |
| 124/191 | SkarmoryCommon | $0.13 |
| 125/191 | RegisteelUncommon | $0.17 |
| 126/191 | BronzorCommon | $0.03 |
| 127/191 | BronzongCommon | $0.05 |
| 128/191 | KlefkiCommon | $0.12 |
| 129/191 | DuraludonCommon | $0.07 |
| 130/191 | Archaludon exDouble rare | · |
| 131/191 | GholdengoUncommon | $0.05 |
| 132/191 | Iron CrownRare | $0.15 |
| 133/191 | Alolan Exeggutor exDouble rare | $0.67 |
| 134/191 | AltariaUncommon | $0.06 |
| 135/191 | DialgaRare | $0.14 |
| 136/191 | PalkiaRare | $0.21 |
| 137/191 | TurtonatorUncommon | $0.02 |
| 138/191 | ApplinCommon | $0.23 |
| 139/191 | FlappleUncommon | $0.11 |
| 140/191 | AppletunUncommon | $0.13 |
| 141/191 | EternatusRare | $0.17 |
| 142/191 | Tatsugiri exDouble rare | $0.64 |
| 143/191 | EeveeCommon | $0.18 |
| 144/191 | SnorlaxCommon | $0.27 |
| 145/191 | SlakothCommon | $0.09 |
| 146/191 | VigorothCommon | $0.05 |
| 147/191 | Slaking exDouble rare | $0.53 |
| 148/191 | SwabluCommon | $0.06 |
| 149/191 | ZangooseCommon | $0.02 |
| 150/191 | KecleonCommon | $0.17 |
| 151/191 | BouffalantCommon | $0.20 |
| 152/191 | RuffletCommon | $0.06 |
| 153/191 | BraviaryUncommon | $0.07 |
| 154/191 | HelioptileCommon | $0.05 |
| 155/191 | HelioliskCommon | $0.09 |
| 156/191 | OranguruCommon | $0.09 |
| 157/191 | TandemausCommon | $0.22 |
| 158/191 | MausholdUncommon | $0.20 |
| 159/191 | Cyclizar exDouble rare | $0.53 |
| 160/191 | Flamigo exDouble rare | $0.56 |
| 161/191 | TerapagosRare | $0.16 |
| 162/191 | Amulet of HopeACE SPEC Rare | $0.32 |
| 163/191 | Babiri BerryUncommon | $0.07 |
| 164/191 | Brilliant BlenderACE SPEC Rare | $0.50 |
| 165/191 | Call BellUncommon | $0.13 |
| 166/191 | Chill Teaser ToyUncommon | $0.03 |
| 167/191 | Clemont's Quick WitUncommon | $0.08 |
| 168/191 | Colbur BerryUncommon | $0.06 |
| 169/191 | Counter GainUncommon | $0.18 |
| 170/191 | CyranoUncommon | $0.20 |
| 171/191 | Deduction KitUncommon | $0.07 |
| 172/191 | Dragon ElixirUncommon | $0.09 |
| 173/191 | DrasnaCommon | $0.07 |
| 174/191 | DraytonUncommon | $0.15 |
| 175/191 | Dusk BallUncommon | $0.18 |
| 176/191 | Energy Search ProACE SPEC Rare | $0.55 |
| 177/191 | Gravity MountainUncommon | $0.17 |
| 178/191 | Jasmine's GazeUncommon | $0.04 |
| 179/191 | Lisia's AppealUncommon | $0.21 |
| 180/191 | Lively StadiumUncommon | $0.19 |
| 181/191 | Meddling MemoUncommon | $0.05 |
| 182/191 | Megaton BlowerACE SPEC Rare | $0.36 |
| 183/191 | Miracle HeadsetACE SPEC Rare | $0.66 |
| 184/191 | Passho BerryUncommon | $0.05 |
| 185/191 | Precious TrolleyACE SPEC Rare | $2.18 |
| 186/191 | Scramble SwitchACE SPEC Rare | $0.37 |
| 187/191 | SurferUncommon | $0.13 |
| 188/191 | Technical Machine: FluoriteUncommon | $0.04 |
| 189/191 | Tera OrbUncommon | $0.26 |
| 190/191 | TymeUncommon | $0.17 |
| 191/191 | Enriching EnergyACE SPEC Rare | $3.23 |
| 192/191 | ExeggcuteIllustration rare | $5.80 |
| 193/191 | VivillonIllustration rare | $4.97 |
| 194/191 | ShiinoticIllustration rare | $3.12 |
| 195/191 | Castform Sunny FormIllustration rare | $7.04 |
| 196/191 | LarvestaIllustration rare | $2.60 |
| 197/191 | CeruledgeIllustration rare | $20.23 |
| 198/191 | FeebasIllustration rare | $7.70 |
| 199/191 | SphealIllustration rare | $9.85 |
| 200/191 | BruxishIllustration rare | $2.60 |
| 201/191 | CetitanIllustration rare | $2.74 |
| 202/191 | StunfiskIllustration rare | $1.74 |
| 203/191 | LatiosIllustration rare | $29.30 |
| 204/191 | MespritIllustration rare | $13.32 |
| 205/191 | PhanpyIllustration rare | $8.29 |
| 206/191 | VibravaIllustration rare | $2.86 |
| 207/191 | ClobbopusIllustration rare | $5.26 |
| 208/191 | Alolan DugtrioIllustration rare | $7.20 |
| 209/191 | SkarmoryIllustration rare | $7.80 |
| 210/191 | FlappleIllustration rare | $4.24 |
| 211/191 | AppletunIllustration rare | $8.14 |
| 212/191 | SlakothIllustration rare | $10.48 |
| 213/191 | KecleonIllustration rare | $7.12 |
| 214/191 | BraviaryIllustration rare | $3.99 |
| 215/191 | Durant exUltra Rare | $0.89 |
| 216/191 | Scovillain exUltra Rare | $0.77 |
| 217/191 | Milotic exUltra Rare | $2.37 |
| 218/191 | Black Kyurem exUltra Rare | $2.15 |
| 219/191 | Pikachu exUltra Rare | $22.98 |
| 220/191 | Latias exUltra Rare | $7.64 |
| 221/191 | Palossand exUltra Rare | $2.12 |
| 222/191 | Flygon exUltra Rare | $2.72 |
| 223/191 | Hydreigon exUltra Rare | $5.01 |
| 224/191 | Archaludon exUltra Rare | $0.87 |
| 225/191 | Alolan Exeggutor exUltra Rare | $2.09 |
| 226/191 | Tatsugiri exUltra Rare | $1.82 |
| 227/191 | Slaking exUltra Rare | $0.91 |
| 228/191 | Cyclizar exUltra Rare | $1.33 |
| 229/191 | Clemont's Quick WitUltra Rare | $1.04 |
| 230/191 | CyranoUltra Rare | $3.31 |
| 231/191 | DrasnaUltra Rare | $0.83 |
| 232/191 | DraytonUltra Rare | $0.83 |
| 233/191 | Jasmine's GazeUltra Rare | $1.45 |
| 234/191 | Lisia's AppealUltra Rare | $2.62 |
| 235/191 | SurferUltra Rare | $0.91 |
| 236/191 | Durant exSpecial illustration rare | $33.47 |
| 237/191 | Milotic exSpecial illustration rare | $102.01 |
| 238/191 | Pikachu exSpecial illustration rare | $243.24 |
| 239/191 | Latias exSpecial illustration rare | $167.54 |
| 240/191 | Hydreigon exSpecial illustration rare | $30.60 |
| 241/191 | Archaludon exSpecial illustration rare | $11.85 |
| 242/191 | Alolan Exeggutor exSpecial illustration rare | $23.51 |
| 243/191 | Clemont's Quick WitSpecial illustration rare | $7.16 |
| 244/191 | DraytonSpecial illustration rare | $7.01 |
| 245/191 | Jasmine's GazeSpecial illustration rare | $19.78 |
| 246/191 | Lisia's AppealSpecial illustration rare | $21.02 |
| 247/191 | Pikachu exHyper rare | $67.45 |
| 248/191 | Alolan Exeggutor exHyper rare | $11.03 |
| 249/191 | Counter GainHyper rare | $1.73 |
| 250/191 | Gravity MountainHyper rare | $10.62 |
| 251/191 | Night StretcherHyper rare | $9.56 |
| 252/191 | Jet EnergyHyper rare | $3.24 |
Show all 252Show fewer
Every Surging Sparks card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.
- chase card · Pikachu ex - 238/191$243.24
- sealed booster box · Surging Sparks$298.42
Cheaper than the box
The single most valuable card in this set costs $55.18 less than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, quoted October 30, 2026.
81.5% of the box. Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.
The chase, priced in packsPikachu ex ($243.24) lands about once per 960 packs · ~26.7 booster boxes · $7,958 of packs at today's box price
| Tier | Odds per pack | Expected per box |
|---|---|---|
| Double rare (ex) | 1 in 6 | 6 |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1 in 15 | 2.4 |
| Illustration rare | 1 in 13 | 2.77 |
| Special illustration rare | 1 in 87 | 0.41 |
| Hyper rare (gold) | 1 in 188 | 0.19 |
Where these odds come from
Odds are measured rates from TCGplayer Infinite pull-rate study (8,000+ packs); The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.
Cheapest recorded route to packsSurging Sparks Booster Box $8.29/pack
Biggest 30-day moveSurging Sparks Single Pack Blister [Hisuian Arcanine] +16.1%
Show all 25Show fewer
Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes
Should you rip Surging Sparks?
4.0%
of boxes beat the $298 box price
- Bottom 5%$60
- Median box$89
- Expected value$109
- Top 5%$261
Where 10,000 boxes landed
63.9%$0-100
27.7%$100-200
4.5%$200-300
3.5%$300-400
0.3%$400-500
0.1%$500-600
0.0%$600-700
Red buckets end below the $298 box price. 87.1% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.0% doubled it.
How the simulation works, tier by tier
We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Surging Sparks using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($298, $8.29/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 36.5% of the box ask on average.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
| Hit tier | Published rate | Pool | Avg / box | Mean value | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration rare | 1-in-87 | 11 | 0.4 | $61.03 | Pikachu ex ($246) |
| Illustration rare | 1-in-13 | 23 | 2.77 | $7.65 | Latios ($29) |
| Double rare (ex) | 1-in-6 | 18 | 6 | $1.24 | Latias ex ($6) |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1-in-15 | 21 | 2.4 | $3.04 | Pikachu ex ($23) |
| Hyper rare (gold) | 1-in-188 | 6 | 0.2 | $17.28 | Pikachu ex ($68) |
| ACE SPEC rare | 1-in-20 (4.94% +/- 0.46%) (inherited) | 8 | 1.78 | $1.05 | Enriching Energy ($3) |
Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $298 box price (Surging Sparks Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: 5 of 6 rates were measured on this set; the rest are inherited from an era study of 8,000+ packs, not measured on this set (the study opened packs of Stellar Crown) (tcgplayer.com, 8,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 25.6% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $43 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (250 of 252 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.
Breadth: 86 cards up · 121 down · 38 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Latias ex - 076/191 (+26.0%).