set deskOctober 2026
Chaos Rising
Full set$509
Median card$0.15
30 days−19.5%
90 days−41.8%
Top 10 share85%
Priced127
All-time high$2,1052026-05-22
From that high−75.8%set value today
From launch−75.8%2026-05-22
Days to peak0from the release date
Dearer than0%0 of 138 recorded days were cheaper
Ask about Chaos Rising
Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
10 cards · $426other 117 · $83
The short, expensive tail of the set.
| No. | Card | Rarity | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 001/86 | Weedle | Common | $0.10 |
| 002/86 | Kakuna | Common | $0.11 |
| 003/86 | Beedrill ex | Double rare | $0.59 |
| 004/86 | Carnivine | Common | $0.04 |
| 005/86 | Chespin | Common | $0.07 |
| 006/86 | Quilladin | Common | $0.08 |
| 007/86 | Chesnaught | Rare | $0.20 |
| 008/86 | Vulpix | Common | $0.11 |
| 009/86 | Ninetales | Uncommon | $0.14 |
| 010/86 | Ho-Oh | Rare | $0.15 |
| 011/86 | Fennekin | Common | $0.15 |
| 012/86 | Braixen | Common | $0.16 |
| 013/86 | Delphox | Rare | $0.14 |
| 014/86 | Litleo | Common | $0.04 |
| 015/86 | Mega Pyroar ex | Double rare | $0.48 |
| 016/86 | Remoraid | Common | $0.05 |
| 017/86 | Octillery | Common | $0.04 |
| 018/86 | Delibird | Uncommon | $0.09 |
| 019/86 | Keldeo | Rare | $0.17 |
| 020/86 | Froakie | Common | $0.17 |
| 021/86 | Frogadier | Common | $0.21 |
| 022/86 | Mega Greninja ex | Double rare | $0.90 |
| 023/86 | Bergmite | Common | $0.07 |
| 024/86 | Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.05 |
| 025/86 | Wimpod | Common | $0.04 |
| 026/86 | Golisopod | Uncommon | $0.05 |
| 027/86 | Mareep | Common | $0.10 |
| 028/86 | Flaaffy | Common | $0.12 |
| 029/86 | Ampharos | Rare | $0.20 |
| 030/86 | Emolga | Common | $0.10 |
| 031/86 | Deoxys | Uncommon | $0.06 |
| 032/86 | Deoxys | Uncommon | $0.06 |
| 033/86 | Deoxys | Uncommon | $0.04 |
| 034/86 | Deoxys | Uncommon | $0.07 |
| 035/86 | Mega Floette ex | Double rare | $0.51 |
| 036/86 | Espurr | Common | $0.12 |
| 037/86 | Meowstic | Uncommon | $0.05 |
| 038/86 | Phantump | Common | $0.06 |
| 039/86 | Trevenant | Rare | $0.15 |
| 040/86 | Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.09 |
| 041/86 | Gourgeist ex | Double rare | $0.51 |
| 042/86 | Xerneas | Rare | $0.14 |
| 043/86 | Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $0.06 |
| 044/86 | Phanpy | Common | $0.10 |
| 045/86 | Donphan | Common | $0.07 |
| 046/86 | Baltoy | Common | $0.09 |
| 047/86 | Claydol | Uncommon | $0.05 |
| 048/86 | Mega Gallade ex | Double rare | $0.61 |
| 049/86 | Zubat | Common | $0.07 |
| 050/86 | Golbat | Common | $0.08 |
| 051/86 | Crobat | Rare | $0.12 |
| 052/86 | Qwilfish | Common | $0.14 |
| 053/86 | Stunky | Common | $0.06 |
| 054/86 | Skuntank | Uncommon | $0.04 |
| 055/86 | Krookodile ex | Double rare | $0.45 |
| 056/86 | Trubbish | Common | $0.13 |
| 057/86 | Garbodor | Uncommon | $0.05 |
| 058/86 | Skrelp | Common | $0.09 |
| 059/86 | Beldum | Common | $0.17 |
| 060/86 | Metang | Common | $0.08 |
| 061/86 | Metagross | Uncommon | $0.22 |
| 062/86 | Ferroseed | Common | $0.07 |
| 063/86 | Ferrothorn | Uncommon | $0.07 |
| 064/86 | Cobalion ex | Double rare | $0.49 |
| 065/86 | Mega Dragalge ex | Double rare | $0.56 |
| 066/86 | Goomy | Common | $0.07 |
| 067/86 | Sliggoo | Common | $0.04 |
| 068/86 | Goodra | Rare | $0.15 |
| 069/86 | Tauros | Uncommon | $0.04 |
| 070/86 | Patrat | Common | $0.16 |
| 071/86 | Watchog | Common | $0.06 |
| 072/86 | Minccino | Common | $0.11 |
| 073/86 | Cinccino ex | Double rare | $0.67 |
| 074/86 | Adversity Policy | Uncommon | $0.09 |
| 075/86 | Ange Floette | Uncommon | $0.11 |
| 076/86 | AZ's Tranquility | Uncommon | $0.16 |
| 077/86 | Emma | Uncommon | $0.14 |
| 078/86 | Great Haul Net | Uncommon | $0.13 |
| 079/86 | Philippe | Uncommon | $0.08 |
| 080/86 | Prism Tower | Uncommon | $0.17 |
| 081/86 | Roxie's Performance | Uncommon | $0.10 |
| 082/86 | Special Red Card | Uncommon | $0.15 |
| 083/86 | Transformation Tome | Uncommon | $0.18 |
| 084/86 | Bubbly Water Energy | Rare | $0.16 |
| 085/86 | Magnetic Metal Energy | Rare | $0.21 |
| 086/86 | Nitro Fire Energy | Rare | $0.14 |
| 087/86 | Chespin | Illustration rare | $3.10 |
| 088/86 | Froakie | Illustration rare | $5.15 |
| 089/86 | Frogadier | Illustration rare | $4.01 |
| 090/86 | Ampharos | Illustration rare | $4.53 |
| 091/86 | Xerneas | Illustration rare | $5.49 |
| 092/86 | Claydol | Illustration rare | $1.37 |
| 093/86 | Crobat | Illustration rare | $1.67 |
| 094/86 | Metang | Illustration rare | $1.52 |
| 095/86 | Sliggoo | Illustration rare | $1.63 |
| 096/86 | Tauros | Illustration rare | $2.55 |
| 097/86 | Watchog | Illustration rare | $1.10 |
| 098/86 | Beedrill ex | Ultra Rare | $2.01 |
| 099/86 | Mega Pyroar ex | Ultra Rare | $2.72 |
| 100/86 | Mega Greninja ex | Ultra Rare | $7.89 |
| 101/86 | Mega Floette ex | Ultra Rare | $2.78 |
| 102/86 | Gourgeist ex | Ultra Rare | $1.12 |
| 103/86 | Cobalion ex | Ultra Rare | $1.28 |
| 104/86 | Mega Dragalge ex | Ultra Rare | $2.09 |
| 105/86 | Cinccino ex | Ultra Rare | $3.57 |
| 106/86 | AZ's Tranquility | Ultra Rare | $1.36 |
| 107/86 | Emma | Ultra Rare | $1.82 |
| 108/86 | Energy Retrieval | Ultra Rare | $1.69 |
| 109/86 | Jumbo Ice Cream | Ultra Rare | $3.39 |
| 110/86 | Philippe | Ultra Rare | $1.40 |
| 111/86 | Prism Tower | Ultra Rare | $1.85 |
| 112/86 | Roxie's Performance | Ultra Rare | $1.49 |
| 113/86 | Special Red Card | Ultra Rare | $2.37 |
| 114/86 | Surfing Beach | Ultra Rare | $2.19 |
| 115/86 | Tool Scrapper | Ultra Rare | $1.11 |
| 116/86 | Mega Greninja ex | Special illustration rare | $130.06 |
| 117/86 | Mega Floette ex | Special illustration rare | $23.61 |
| 118/86 | Mega Dragalge ex | Special illustration rare | $24.55 |
| 119/86 | Cinccino ex | Special illustration rare | $41.69 |
| 120/86 | AZ's Tranquility | Special illustration rare | $19.46 |
| 121/86 | Roxie's Performance | Special illustration rare | $15.56 |
| 122/86 | Mega Greninja ex | Mega Hyper Rare | $124.16 |
Every Chaos Rising card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.
You can own 117 of the 127 priced cards in Chaos Rising for about $83. The median card is $0.15. The remaining $426 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Mega Greninja ex - 116/086, $140) is 27% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 15% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
chase card · Mega Greninja ex - 116/086$130.06
sealed booster box · Chaos Rising$186.9
the card69.6% of the box
CHEAPER THAN THE BOX
The single most valuable card in this set costs $56.84 less than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, as of 2026-10-10.
Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.
30-day return-18.7%
90-day return-39.4%
Realized vol20%annualized, ~90d daily returns
Max drawdown-76.1%recorded window
Off recorded high-76.1%
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Medians anchor the return windows so a single outlier day never makes the figure.
The chase, priced in packsMega Greninja ex ($130.06) lands about once per 540 packs · ~15 booster boxes · $2,804 of packs at today's box price
| Tier | Odds per pack | Cards in tier | Expected per box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double rare (ex) | 1 in 6 | 10 | 6 |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1 in 15 | 18 | 2.4 |
| Illustration rare | 1 in 13 | 11 | 2.77 |
| Special illustration rare | 1 in 90 | 6 | 0.4 |
Odds are era-level averages from TCGplayer Infinite (Surging Sparks study): per-rarity odds constant across 2024 SV-era non-special sets; The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.
Cheapest recorded route to packsChaos Rising Booster Box $5.19/pack
Biggest 30-day moveChaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Zacian/Mimikyu] −13.5%
Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes
Should you rip Chaos Rising?
4.9%
of boxes beat the $188 box price
We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Chaos Rising using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($188, $5.23/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 40.6% of the box ask on average.
Median box
$62
Expected value
$77
Bottom 5%
$48
Top 5%
$188
Where 10,000 boxes landed
72.3%$0-75
19.4%$75-150
7.4%$150-225
0.5%$225-300
0.4%$300-375
0.0%$375-450
Red buckets end below the $188 box price. 84.9% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.0% doubled it.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
| Hit tier | Published rate | Pool | Avg / box | Mean value | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration rare | 1-in-101 (0.99% +/- 0.27%) (inherited) | 6 | 0.35 | $43.24 | Mega Greninja ex ($132) |
| Illustration rare | 1-in-9 (10.89% +/- 0.86%) (inherited) | 11 | 3.92 | $2.85 | Froakie ($5) |
| Ultra rare (full art) | 1-in-12 (8.23% +/- 0.76%) (inherited) | 18 | 2.97 | $2.38 | Mega Greninja ex ($8) |
| Double rare (ex) | 1-in-5 (20.91% +/- 1.12%) (inherited) | 10 | 7.56 | $0.59 | Mega Greninja ex ($1) |
| Mega hyper rare (gold) | 1-in-1260 (0.08% +/- 0.08%) (inherited) | 1 | 0.03 | $123.39 | Mega Greninja ex ($123) |
Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $188 box price (Chaos Rising Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: every rate here is inherited from an era study of 5,000+ packs, not measured on this set (the study opened packs of Mega Evolution (ME1)) (tcgplayer.com, 5,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 14.7% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $35 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (122 of 122 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.
Breadth: 42 cards up · 69 down · 16 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Mega Pyroar ex - 099/086 (+19.5%).