Set deskNovember 2026
Lost Origin
$1,350Full set−2.8% 30 days
The sum of every card's real TCGplayer price, recorded daily.
$0.21 Median card215 Priced
Recorded low$1,346November 1, 2026All-time high$1,395October 2, 2026
From that high−3.3%set value today
First recorded$1,376when we started tracking, not a release
Dearer than7%4 of 56 recorded days were cheaper
Realized vol6%annualized, 56 days of daily returns
Max drawdown−3.5%recorded window
How these are measured
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Each return is the first recorded value inside its window against the last. We withhold it when the number of cards in the basket changed inside the window, when a single step moved more than 20%, or when the series cannot cover the window.
Ask about Lost Origin
Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
10 cards$1,168other 205$181
The short, expensive tail of the set.
If you are building it
You can own 205 of the 215 priced cards in Lost Origin for about $181. The median card is $0.21. The remaining $1,168 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Giratina V (Alternate Full Art), $822) is 61% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 13% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)$822−3.0% 30d
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)$201−1.3% 30d
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)$26.94−11.4% 30d
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)$24.75−16.3% 30d
Galarian Perrserker V (Alternate Full Art)$21.98−1.3% 30d
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)$18.81−3.4% 30d
Giratina V (Full Art)$17.49−4.5% 30d
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)$15.35−1.4% 30d
Hisuian Goodra VSTAR (Secret)$10.55+1.6% 30d
Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR (Secret)$9.39+7.8% 30d
| No. | Card | Market |
|---|---|---|
| 001/196 | OddishCommon | $0.14 |
| 002/196 | GloomUncommon | $0.19 |
| 003/196 | VileplumeHolo Rare | $0.34 |
| 004/196 | ParasCommon | $0.11 |
| 005/196 | ParasectRare | $0.16 |
| 006/196 | WurmpleCommon | $0.14 |
| 007/196 | SilcoonUncommon | $0.14 |
| 008/196 | BeautiflyHolo Rare | $0.39 |
| 009/196 | CascoonUncommon | $0.06 |
| 010/196 | DustoxRare | $0.21 |
| 011/196 | SeedotCommon | $0.16 |
| 012/196 | NuzleafUncommon | $0.13 |
| 013/196 | ShiftryHolo Rare | $0.19 |
| 014/196 | RoseliaCommon | $0.15 |
| 015/196 | RoseradeUncommon | $0.17 |
| 016/196 | PhantumpCommon | $0.14 |
| 017/196 | TrevenantHolo Rare | $0.25 |
| 018/196 | BlipbugCommon | $0.23 |
| 019/196 | DottlerUncommon | $0.09 |
| 020/196 | OrbeetleHolo Rare | $0.22 |
| 021/196 | SlugmaCommon | $0.11 |
| 022/196 | MagcargoRare | $0.19 |
| 023/196 | TorkoalUncommon | $0.16 |
| 024/196 | LitwickCommon | $0.23 |
| 025/196 | LampentUncommon | $0.09 |
| 026/196 | ChandelureHolo Rare | $0.25 |
| 027/196 | Delphox VHolo Rare V | $0.81 |
| 028/196 | LitleoCommon | $0.14 |
| 029/196 | PyroarHolo Rare | $0.24 |
| 030/196 | PoliwagCommon | $0.13 |
| 031/196 | PoliwhirlUncommon | $0.18 |
| 032/196 | PolitoedRare | $0.32 |
| 033/196 | SeelCommon | $0.14 |
| 034/196 | DewgongRare | $0.18 |
| 035/196 | HorseaCommon | $0.14 |
| 036/196 | SeadraUncommon | $0.10 |
| 037/196 | KingdraHolo Rare | $0.30 |
| 038/196 | LuvdiscCommon | $0.13 |
| 039/196 | ShellosCommon | $0.13 |
| 040/196 | FinneonCommon | $0.14 |
| 041/196 | LumineonUncommon | $0.07 |
| 042/196 | SnoverCommon | $0.03 |
| 043/196 | AbomasnowUncommon | $0.11 |
| 044/196 | Hisuian BasculinCommon | $0.03 |
| 045/196 | Hisuian BasculegionHolo Rare | $0.37 |
| 046/196 | DucklettCommon | $0.22 |
| 047/196 | SwannaUncommon | $0.11 |
| 048/196 | Kyurem VHolo Rare V | $0.71 |
| 049/196 | Kyurem VMAXHolo Rare VMAX | $2.20 |
| 050/196 | CramorantRare | $0.29 |
| 051/196 | GlastrierHolo Rare | $0.28 |
| 052/196 | PikachuCommon | $1.15 |
| 053/196 | RaichuRare | $0.31 |
| 054/196 | ElectrikeCommon | $0.13 |
| 055/196 | ManectricRare | $0.17 |
| 056/196 | Magnezone VHolo Rare VMAX | $0.68 |
| 057/196 | Magnezone VSTARHolo Rare VSTAR | $0.96 |
| 058/196 | Rotom VHolo Rare VMAX | · |
| 059/196 | TynamoCommon | $0.07 |
| 060/196 | EelektrikUncommon | $0.11 |
| 061/196 | EelektrossRare | $0.20 |
| 062/196 | ClefairyCommon | $0.21 |
| 063/196 | ClefableRare | $0.28 |
| 064/196 | GastlyCommon | $0.20 |
| 065/196 | HaunterUncommon | $0.18 |
| 066/196 | GengarHolo Rare | $3.76 |
| 067/196 | Mr. MimeRare | $0.22 |
| 068/196 | JynxCommon | $0.13 |
| 069/196 | Radiant GardevoirRadiant Rare | $1.64 |
| 070/196 | SableyeHolo Rare | $0.61 |
| 071/196 | MawileCommon | $0.16 |
| 072/196 | ShuppetCommon | $0.09 |
| 073/196 | BanetteRare | $0.13 |
| 074/196 | CresseliaHolo Rare | $0.44 |
| 075/196 | Hisuian ZoruaCommon | $0.21 |
| 076/196 | Hisuian ZoroarkHolo Rare | $0.36 |
| 077/196 | InkayCommon | $0.12 |
| 078/196 | MalamarRare | $0.20 |
| 079/196 | ComfeyRare | $0.26 |
| 080/196 | MimikyuRare | $0.80 |
| 081/196 | SpectrierHolo Rare | $0.40 |
| 082/196 | Enamorus VHolo Rare V | $0.72 |
| 083/196 | Hisuian GrowlitheCommon | $0.19 |
| 084/196 | Hisuian ArcanineHolo Rare | $0.32 |
| 085/196 | PoliwrathRare | $0.17 |
| 086/196 | MachopCommon | $0.32 |
| 087/196 | MachokeUncommon | $0.10 |
| 088/196 | MachampHolo Rare | $0.31 |
| 089/196 | RhyhornCommon | $0.13 |
| 090/196 | RhydonUncommon | $0.11 |
| 091/196 | RhyperiorRare | $0.17 |
| 092/196 | Aerodactyl VHolo Rare V | $0.84 |
| 093/196 | Aerodactyl VSTARHolo Rare VSTAR | $1.22 |
| 094/196 | SudowoodoCommon | $0.23 |
| 095/196 | GligarCommon | $0.10 |
| 096/196 | GliscorRare | $0.20 |
| 097/196 | MakuhitaCommon | $0.09 |
| 098/196 | HariyamaUncommon | $0.11 |
| 099/196 | MedititeCommon | $0.09 |
| 100/196 | MedichamUncommon | $0.10 |
| 101/196 | RelicanthUncommon | $0.18 |
| 102/196 | GastrodonUncommon | $0.16 |
| 103/196 | MienfooCommon | $0.12 |
| 104/196 | MienshaoUncommon | $0.15 |
| 105/196 | LandorusRare | $0.15 |
| 106/196 | BinacleCommon | $0.10 |
| 107/196 | BarbaracleHolo Rare | $0.20 |
| 108/196 | CarbinkUncommon | $0.15 |
| 109/196 | RockruffCommon | $0.17 |
| 110/196 | FalinksCommon | $0.08 |
| 111/196 | StonjournerRare | $0.20 |
| 112/196 | SpinarakCommon | $0.13 |
| 113/196 | AriadosRare | $0.22 |
| 114/196 | MurkrowCommon | $0.19 |
| 115/196 | HonchkrowRare | $0.17 |
| 116/196 | SeviperUncommon | $0.17 |
| 117/196 | SpiritombRare | $0.18 |
| 118/196 | Drapion VHolo Rare V | $0.63 |
| 119/196 | Drapion VSTARHolo Rare VSTAR | $0.86 |
| 120/196 | DarkraiHolo Rare | $0.38 |
| 121/196 | InkayCommon | $0.13 |
| 122/196 | HoopaRare | $0.15 |
| 123/196 | Radiant Hisuian SneaslerRadiant Rare | $0.57 |
| 124/196 | Radiant SteelixRadiant Rare | $1.14 |
| 125/196 | BronzorCommon | $0.11 |
| 126/196 | BronzongUncommon | $0.09 |
| 127/196 | Galarian StunfiskUncommon | $0.13 |
| 128/196 | MagearnaRare | $0.22 |
| 129/196 | Galarian Perrserker VHolo Rare V | $0.79 |
| 130/196 | Giratina VHolo Rare V | $2.29 |
| 131/196 | Giratina VSTARHolo Rare VSTAR | $2.62 |
| 132/196 | GoomyCommon | $0.19 |
| 133/196 | Hisuian SliggooUncommon | $0.27 |
| 134/196 | Hisuian GoodraHolo Rare | $0.36 |
| 135/196 | Hisuian Goodra VHolo Rare V | $0.81 |
| 136/196 | Hisuian Goodra VSTARHolo Rare VSTAR | $1.30 |
| 137/196 | Pidgeot VHolo Rare V | $0.76 |
| 138/196 | LickitungCommon | $0.14 |
| 139/196 | LickilickyUncommon | $0.14 |
| 140/196 | PorygonCommon | $0.17 |
| 141/196 | Porygon2Uncommon | $0.14 |
| 142/196 | Porygon-ZRare | $0.29 |
| 143/196 | SnorlaxHolo Rare | $2.77 |
| 144/196 | AipomCommon | $0.21 |
| 145/196 | AmbipomUncommon | $0.11 |
| 146/196 | Hisuian Zoroark VHolo Rare V | · |
| 147/196 | Hisuian Zoroark VSTARHolo Rare VSTAR | $1.44 |
| 148/196 | BouffalantRare | $0.15 |
| 149/196 | KomalaUncommon | $0.15 |
| 150/196 | SkwovetCommon | $0.15 |
| 151/196 | GreedentRare | $0.20 |
| 152/196 | Arc PhoneUncommon | $0.11 |
| 153/196 | ArezuUncommon | $0.20 |
| 154/196 | Box of DisasterUncommon | $0.11 |
| 155/196 | Colress's ExperimentUncommon | $0.24 |
| 156/196 | Damage PumpUncommon | $0.18 |
| 157/196 | FantinaUncommon | $0.10 |
| 158/196 | IscanUncommon | $0.07 |
| 159/196 | LadyUncommon | $0.26 |
| 160/196 | Lake AcuityUncommon | $0.11 |
| 161/196 | Lost CityUncommon | $0.22 |
| 162/196 | Lost VacuumUncommon | $0.21 |
| 163/196 | Mirage GateUncommon | $0.21 |
| 164/196 | Miss Fortune SistersUncommon | $0.18 |
| 165/196 | Panic MaskUncommon | $0.12 |
| 166/196 | RileyUncommon | $0.06 |
| 167/196 | ThortonUncommon | $0.16 |
| 168/196 | Tool BoxUncommon | $0.13 |
| 169/196 | VoloHolo Rare | $0.21 |
| 170/196 | Windup ArmUncommon | $0.04 |
| 171/196 | Gift EnergyUncommon | $0.21 |
| 172/196 | Hisuian Electrode VUltra Rare | $2.57 |
| 173/196 | Delphox VUltra Rare | $3.99 |
| 174/196 | Kyurem VUltra Rare | $3.15 |
| 175/196 | Magnezone VUltra Rare | $1.88 |
| 176/196 | Rotom VUltra Rare | $2.67 |
| 177/196 | Rotom VUltra Rare | $26.94 |
| 178/196 | Enamorus VUltra Rare | $2.46 |
| 179/196 | Aerodactyl VUltra Rare | $2.70 |
| 180/196 | Aerodactyl VUltra Rare | $201.09 |
| 181/196 | Gallade VUltra Rare | $2.91 |
| 182/196 | Drapion VUltra Rare | $1.55 |
| 183/196 | Galarian Perrserker VUltra Rare | $1.89 |
| 184/196 | Galarian Perrserker VUltra Rare | $21.98 |
| 185/196 | Giratina VUltra Rare | $17.49 |
| 186/196 | Giratina VUltra Rare | $822.08 |
| 187/196 | Hisuian Goodra VUltra Rare | $2.96 |
| 188/196 | Pidgeot VUltra Rare | $2.97 |
| 189/196 | ArezuUltra Rare | $3.83 |
| 190/196 | Colress's ExperimentUltra Rare | $1.67 |
| 191/196 | FantinaUltra Rare | $2.77 |
| 192/196 | IscanUltra Rare | $1.07 |
| 193/196 | LadyUltra Rare | $4.12 |
| 194/196 | Miss Fortune SistersUltra Rare | $3.54 |
| 195/196 | ThortonUltra Rare | $1.14 |
| 196/196 | VoloUltra Rare | $2.49 |
| 197/196 | Kyurem VMAXSecret Rare | $9.33 |
| 198/196 | Magnezone VSTARSecret Rare | $5.94 |
| 199/196 | Aerodactyl VSTARSecret Rare | $15.35 |
| 200/196 | Drapion VSTARSecret Rare | $6.35 |
| 201/196 | Giratina VSTARSecret Rare | $24.75 |
| 202/196 | Hisuian Goodra VSTARSecret Rare | $10.55 |
| 203/196 | Hisuian Zoroark VSTARSecret Rare | $9.39 |
| 204/196 | ArezuSecret Rare | $4.23 |
| 205/196 | Colress's ExperimentSecret Rare | $3.75 |
| 206/196 | FantinaSecret Rare | $4.14 |
| 207/196 | IscanSecret Rare | $3.28 |
| 208/196 | LadySecret Rare | $5.66 |
| 209/196 | Miss Fortune SistersSecret Rare | $3.77 |
| 210/196 | ThortonSecret Rare | $3.26 |
| 211/196 | VoloSecret Rare | $5.02 |
| 212/196 | Giratina VSTARSecret Rare | $18.81 |
| 213/196 | Hisuian Zoroark VSTARSecret Rare | $7.01 |
| 214/196 | Box of DisasterSecret Rare | $2.08 |
| 215/196 | Collapsed StadiumSecret Rare | $2.79 |
| 216/196 | Dark PatchSecret Rare | $2.27 |
| 217/196 | Lost VacuumSecret Rare | $2.35 |
Show all 217Show fewer
Every Lost Origin card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.
- chase card · Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)$822.08
- sealed booster box · Lost Origin$732.1
Pricier than the box
The single most valuable card in this set costs $89.98 more than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, quoted October 31, 2026.
112.3% of the box. Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.
The chase, priced in packsGiratina V ($822.08) lands about once per 804 packs · ~22.3 booster boxes · $16,350 of packs at today's box price
| Tier | Odds per pack | Expected per box |
|---|---|---|
| Any ultra rare | 1 in 5 | 7.2 |
| Any V | 1 in 9 | 4 |
| VMAX / VSTAR | 1 in 23 | 1.57 |
| Full Art V | 1 in 51 | 0.71 |
| Full Art Trainer | 1 in 70 | 0.51 |
| Alt-art V | 1 in 201 | 0.18 |
| Gold rare | 1 in 131 | 0.27 |
Where these odds come from
Odds are measured rates from TCGplayer Infinite pull-rate study (8,000+ packs); The Pokémon Company publishes no official odds. The chase math assumes every card in a tier is equally likely within its slot, and prices the packs at the tracked booster-box price. It is arithmetic, not a promise.
Cheapest recorded route to packsLost Origin Booster Pack $16.12/pack
Biggest 30-day moveLost Origin Booster Pack −17.8%
Show all 37Show fewer
Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes
Should you rip Lost Origin?
5.2%
of boxes beat the $732 box price
- Bottom 5%$86
- Median box$151
- Expected value$214
- Top 5%$904
Where 10,000 boxes landed
81.5%$0-250
13.0%$250-500
0.4%$500-750
3.3%$750-1000
1.8%$1000-1250
0.1%$1250-1500
0.0%$1500-1750
0.1%$1750-2000
Red buckets end below the $732 box price. 92.2% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.1% doubled it.
How the simulation works, tier by tier
We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Lost Origin using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($732, $20.34/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 29.2% of the box ask on average.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
| Hit tier | Published rate | Pool | Avg / box | Mean value | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trainer Gallery | 1-in-8 (12.31%) | 30 | 4.44 | $17.74 | Pikachu V ($107) |
| Full-art V | 1-in-51 (1.98%) | 17 | 0.71 | $65.82 | Giratina V ($820) |
| Alt-art V | 1-in-201 (0.50%) | 17 | 0.18 | $65.82 | Giratina V ($820) |
| Pokemon V | 1-in-9 (11.63%) | 10 | 4.19 | $0.84 | Giratina V ($2) |
| Rainbow rare | 1-in-78 (1.28%) | 21 | 0.46 | $5.96 | Giratina VSTAR ($19) |
| Radiant rare | 1-in-20 (5.01%) | 3 | 1.81 | $1.12 | Radiant Gardevoir ($2) |
| VMAX / VSTAR | 1-in-23 (4.42%) | 9 | 1.58 | $1.25 | Giratina VSTAR ($3) |
| Gold secret rare | 1-in-131 (0.76%) | 21 | 0.28 | $5.96 | Giratina VSTAR ($19) |
| Full-art Trainer | 1-in-70 (1.42%) | 8 | 0.49 | $2.58 | Lady ($4) |
Rows that repeat a pool are not a duplication: our catalog files full-art and alt-art V under one rarity, and rainbow and gold secrets under another, so the two published rates roll separately over the same cards.
Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $732 box price (Lost Origin Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: all 9 rates were measured on this set's own packs (tcgplayer.com, 8,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 51.7% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $62 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (244 of 247 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.
Breadth: 100 cards up · 89 down · 25 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR (213) (Secret) (+16.1%).