Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
The short, expensive tail of the set.
You can own 310 of the 312 priced cards in Sm Promos for about $14,502. The median card is $14.67. The remaining $699 sits in just 2 chase cards, and one of them (Mewtwo & Mew GX - SM191, $390) is 3% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 79% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Medians anchor the return windows so a single outlier day never makes the figure.
No published pull-rate study exists for this set, so there is nothing honest to simulate. We only rip sets whose per-pack odds come from a published, sourced study, and an inherited or inferred rate would put an invented number under every figure on this panel.
We publish a rip simulation only where per-pack odds come from a published, sourced study. Which sets have published pull rates counts what exists: 31 of the 110 English sets sold in booster packs, resting on eleven studies.
Breadth: 147 cards up · 45 down · 120 flat over 30 days.