Set deskNovember 2026
Darkness Ablaze
$244Full set−4.5% 30 days
The sum of every card's real TCGplayer price, recorded daily.
$0.22 Median card201 Priced
Recorded low$241October 19, 2026All-time high$261September 8, 2026
From that high−6.3%set value today
First recorded$261when we started tracking, not a release
Dearer than20%11 of 56 recorded days were cheaper
Realized vol6%annualized, 56 days of daily returns
Max drawdown−7.5%recorded window
How these are measured
Computed from this set's own recorded value series; windows are stated and nothing is modeled. Each return is the first recorded value inside its window against the last. We withhold it when the number of cards in the basket changed inside the window, when a single step moved more than 20%, or when the series cannot cover the window.
Ask about Darkness Ablaze
Answers come from this page's recorded prices and verified PSA sold medians, with the sample size behind each one.
Recorded moonstone data only. Not financial advice.
10 cards$126other 191$118
The short, expensive tail of the set.
If you are building it
You can own 191 of the 201 priced cards in Darkness Ablaze for about $118. The median card is $0.22. The remaining $126 sits in just 10 chase cards, and one of them (Charizard VMAX, $39) is 16% of the entire set on its own. A full set is not one long climb. It is a cheap, fast 48% and then a very short, very expensive tail.
Charizard VMAX$39.07−10.3% 30d
Butterfree VMAX (Secret)$16.72−7.1% 30d
Salamence VMAX (Secret)$14.29−3.3% 30d
Scizor VMAX (Secret)$13.04+10.8% 30d
Eternatus VMAX (Secret)$9.64−10.4% 30d
Rillaboom (Secret)$7.56+5.4% 30d
Charizard V$6.77−26.8% 30d
Mew V$6.64+4.6% 30d
Centiskorch VMAX (Secret)$6.43−14.6% 30d
Houndoom V (Full Art)$6.26−3.6% 30d
| No. | Card | Market |
|---|---|---|
| 1/189 | Butterfree VHolo Rare V | $1.59 |
| 2/189 | Butterfree VMAXHolo Rare VMAX | $5.81 |
| 3/189 | ParasCommon | $0.06 |
| 4/189 | ParasectUncommon | $0.04 |
| 5/189 | CarnivineUncommon | $0.05 |
| 6/189 | PansageCommon | $0.05 |
| 7/189 | SimisageUncommon | $0.06 |
| 8/189 | KarrablastCommon | $0.07 |
| 9/189 | ShelmetCommon | $0.05 |
| 10/189 | AccelgorRare | $0.08 |
| 11/189 | RowletCommon | $0.06 |
| 12/189 | DartrixUncommon | $0.08 |
| 13/189 | DecidueyeHolo Rare | $0.30 |
| 14/189 | BounsweetCommon | $0.24 |
| 15/189 | SteeneeUncommon | $0.09 |
| 16/189 | TsareenaRare | $0.28 |
| 17/189 | WimpodCommon | $0.07 |
| 18/189 | GolisopodHolo Rare | $0.30 |
| 19/189 | Charizard VHolo Rare V | $6.77 |
| 20/189 | Charizard VMAXHolo Rare VMAX | $39.07 |
| 21/189 | Houndoom VHolo Rare V | $2.34 |
| 22/189 | TorchicCommon | $0.31 |
| 23/189 | CombuskenUncommon | $0.09 |
| 24/189 | BlazikenHolo Rare | $0.67 |
| 25/189 | HeatranHolo Rare | $0.25 |
| 26/189 | PansearCommon | $0.08 |
| 27/189 | SimisearUncommon | $0.06 |
| 28/189 | Galarian DarmanitanRare | $0.36 |
| 29/189 | LarvestaCommon | $0.09 |
| 30/189 | VolcaronaRare | $0.30 |
| 31/189 | FletchinderUncommon | $0.04 |
| 32/189 | TalonflameRare | $0.21 |
| 33/189 | Centiskorch VHolo Rare V | $0.72 |
| 34/189 | Centiskorch VMAXHolo Rare VMAX | $1.90 |
| 35/189 | Galarian Mr. MimeCommon | $0.08 |
| 36/189 | Galarian Mr. RimeRare | $0.38 |
| 37/189 | SuicuneHolo Rare | $0.82 |
| 38/189 | FeebasCommon | $0.19 |
| 39/189 | MiloticHolo Rare | $0.60 |
| 40/189 | RelicanthUncommon | $0.07 |
| 41/189 | PanpourCommon | $0.19 |
| 42/189 | SimipourUncommon | $0.06 |
| 43/189 | Galarian DarumakaCommon | $0.05 |
| 44/189 | Galarian DarmanitanRare | $0.32 |
| 45/189 | VanilliteCommon | $0.05 |
| 46/189 | VanillishUncommon | $0.08 |
| 47/189 | VanilluxeRare | $0.25 |
| 48/189 | CubchooCommon | $0.06 |
| 49/189 | BearticRare | $0.21 |
| 50/189 | WishiwashiCommon | $0.09 |
| 51/189 | MareanieCommon | $0.12 |
| 52/189 | ToxapexUncommon | $0.06 |
| 53/189 | DracovishHolo Rare | $1.11 |
| 54/189 | ArctovishRare | $0.35 |
| 55/189 | MareepCommon | $0.13 |
| 56/189 | FlaaffyUncommon | $0.32 |
| 57/189 | AmpharosRare | $0.26 |
| 58/189 | ElectrikeCommon | $0.06 |
| 59/189 | ManectricRare | $0.27 |
| 60/189 | Vikavolt VHolo Rare V | $0.75 |
| 61/189 | Tapu KokoHolo Rare | $0.32 |
| 62/189 | ToxelCommon | $0.09 |
| 63/189 | ToxtricityHolo Rare | $0.28 |
| 64/189 | PincurchinHolo Rare | $0.28 |
| 65/189 | DracozoltRare | $0.42 |
| 66/189 | ArctozoltHolo Rare | $1.89 |
| 67/189 | JigglypuffCommon | $0.25 |
| 68/189 | WigglytuffRare | $0.32 |
| 69/189 | Mew VHolo Rare V | $6.64 |
| 70/189 | SnubbullCommon | $0.13 |
| 71/189 | GranbullRare | $0.20 |
| 72/189 | LunatoneUncommon | $0.13 |
| 73/189 | GothitaCommon | $0.27 |
| 74/189 | GothoritaUncommon | $0.24 |
| 75/189 | GothitelleRare | $0.25 |
| 76/189 | GolettCommon | $0.08 |
| 77/189 | GolurkRare | $0.08 |
| 78/189 | DedenneUncommon | $0.38 |
| 79/189 | MorelullCommon | $0.08 |
| 80/189 | ShiinoticUncommon | $0.15 |
| 81/189 | MimikyuRare | $0.54 |
| 82/189 | SinisteaCommon | $0.09 |
| 83/189 | PolteageistUncommon | $0.19 |
| 84/189 | DiglettCommon | $0.16 |
| 85/189 | DugtrioUncommon | $0.08 |
| 86/189 | LarvitarCommon | $0.11 |
| 87/189 | PupitarUncommon | $0.09 |
| 88/189 | TyranitarHolo Rare | $0.39 |
| 89/189 | TrapinchCommon | $0.37 |
| 90/189 | VibravaUncommon | $0.07 |
| 91/189 | FlygonRare | $0.28 |
| 92/189 | SolrockUncommon | $0.09 |
| 93/189 | HippopotasCommon | $0.05 |
| 94/189 | HippowdonRare | $0.29 |
| 95/189 | Rhyperior VHolo Rare V | $0.85 |
| 96/189 | DiggersbyRare | $0.24 |
| 97/189 | PassimianCommon | $0.06 |
| 98/189 | Galarian Sirfetch'dRare | $0.33 |
| 99/189 | Galarian Slowbro VHolo Rare V | $1.11 |
| 100/189 | GrimerCommon | $0.07 |
| 101/189 | MukRare | $0.14 |
| 102/189 | SpinarakCommon | $0.12 |
| 103/189 | AriadosUncommon | $0.06 |
| 104/189 | Crobat VHolo Rare V | $0.78 |
| 105/189 | DarkraiHolo Rare | $0.52 |
| 106/189 | PurrloinCommon | $0.14 |
| 107/189 | LiepardRare | $0.26 |
| 108/189 | DeinoCommon | $0.18 |
| 109/189 | ZweilousUncommon | $0.16 |
| 110/189 | HydreigonRare | $0.34 |
| 111/189 | HoopaHolo Rare | $0.34 |
| 112/189 | NickitCommon | $0.05 |
| 113/189 | ThievulRare | $0.22 |
| 114/189 | Grimmsnarl VHolo Rare V | $0.87 |
| 115/189 | Grimmsnarl VMAXHolo Rare VMAX | $2.47 |
| 116/189 | Eternatus VHolo Rare V | $1.18 |
| 117/189 | Eternatus VMAXHolo Rare VMAX | $3.51 |
| 118/189 | Scizor VHolo Rare V | $2.15 |
| 119/189 | Scizor VMAXHolo Rare VMAX | $4.23 |
| 120/189 | SkarmoryCommon | $0.03 |
| 121/189 | AronCommon | $0.09 |
| 122/189 | LaironUncommon | $0.08 |
| 123/189 | AggronHolo Rare | $0.48 |
| 124/189 | EscavalierRare | $0.07 |
| 125/189 | KlinkCommon | $0.08 |
| 126/189 | KlangUncommon | $0.03 |
| 127/189 | KlinklangRare | $0.14 |
| 128/189 | Galarian Stunfisk VHolo Rare V | $0.66 |
| 129/189 | MeltanCommon | $0.16 |
| 130/189 | MelmetalRare | $0.09 |
| 131/189 | CufantCommon | $0.06 |
| 132/189 | CopperajahHolo Rare | $0.30 |
| 133/189 | KangaskhanHolo Rare | $0.40 |
| 134/189 | TaurosCommon | $0.13 |
| 135/189 | SentretCommon | $0.10 |
| 136/189 | FurretUncommon | $0.27 |
| 137/189 | DunsparceCommon | $0.08 |
| 138/189 | TeddiursaCommon | $0.09 |
| 139/189 | UrsaringUncommon | $0.04 |
| 140/189 | LugiaRare | $0.52 |
| 141/189 | SkittyCommon | $0.30 |
| 142/189 | DelcattyRare | $0.43 |
| 143/189 | Salamence VHolo Rare V | $0.99 |
| 144/189 | Salamence VMAXHolo Rare VMAX | $3.21 |
| 145/189 | StarlyCommon | $0.05 |
| 146/189 | StaraviaUncommon | $0.05 |
| 147/189 | StaraptorRare | $0.22 |
| 148/189 | DucklettCommon | $0.16 |
| 149/189 | SwannaRare | $0.06 |
| 150/189 | BunnelbyCommon | $0.08 |
| 151/189 | FletchlingCommon | $0.07 |
| 152/189 | SkwovetCommon | $0.17 |
| 153/189 | GreedentRare | $0.21 |
| 154/189 | RookideeCommon | $0.10 |
| 155/189 | CorvisquireUncommon | $0.04 |
| 156/189 | CorviknightHolo Rare | $0.37 |
| 157/189 | Big ParasolUncommon | $0.08 |
| 158/189 | Billowing SmokeUncommon | $0.04 |
| 159/189 | Bird KeeperUncommon | $0.15 |
| 160/189 | Cape of ToughnessUncommon | $0.12 |
| 161/189 | Familiar BellUncommon | $0.03 |
| 162/189 | Glimwood TangleUncommon | $0.17 |
| 163/189 | KabuUncommon | $0.07 |
| 164/189 | Old PCUncommon | $0.08 |
| 165/189 | PiersUncommon | $0.16 |
| 166/189 | Pokémon Breeder's NurturingUncommon | $0.23 |
| 167/189 | Rare FossilUncommon | $0.13 |
| 168/189 | RoseUncommon | $0.05 |
| 169/189 | Rose TowerUncommon | $0.17 |
| 170/189 | SpikemuthUncommon | $0.06 |
| 171/189 | Struggle GlovesUncommon | $0.06 |
| 172/189 | Turbo PatchUncommon | $0.07 |
| 173/189 | Yell HornUncommon | $0.08 |
| 174/189 | Heat Fire EnergyUncommon | $0.26 |
| 175/189 | Hiding Darkness EnergyUncommon | $0.30 |
| 176/189 | Powerful Colorless EnergyUncommon | $0.30 |
| 177/189 | Butterfree VUltra Rare | $6.13 |
| 178/189 | Houndoom VUltra Rare | $6.26 |
| 179/189 | Centiskorch VUltra Rare | $1.45 |
| 180/189 | Vikavolt VUltra Rare | $1.76 |
| 181/189 | Rhyperior VUltra Rare | $2.73 |
| 182/189 | Crobat VUltra Rare | $3.33 |
| 183/189 | Scizor VUltra Rare | $4.60 |
| 184/189 | Galarian Stunfisk VUltra Rare | $1.35 |
| 185/189 | Salamence VUltra Rare | $4.31 |
| 186/189 | KabuUltra Rare | $1.13 |
| 187/189 | PiersUltra Rare | $2.01 |
| 188/189 | Pokémon Breeder's NurturingUltra Rare | $2.47 |
| 189/189 | RoseUltra Rare | $1.41 |
| 190/189 | Butterfree VMAXSecret Rare | $16.72 |
| 191/189 | Centiskorch VMAXSecret Rare | $6.43 |
| 192/189 | Eternatus VMAXSecret Rare | $9.64 |
| 193/189 | Scizor VMAXSecret Rare | $13.04 |
| 194/189 | Salamence VMAXSecret Rare | $14.29 |
| 195/189 | Pokémon Breeder's NurturingSecret Rare | $3.85 |
| 196/189 | RoseSecret Rare | $3.22 |
| 197/189 | RillaboomSecret Rare | $7.56 |
| 198/189 | CoalossalSecret Rare | $4.95 |
| 199/189 | Big ParasolSecret Rare | $2.16 |
| 200/189 | Turbo PatchSecret Rare | $2.51 |
| 201/189 | Capture EnergySecret Rare | $2.78 |
Show all 201Show fewer
Every Darkness Ablaze card in the moonstone catalog, in collector-number order. Market is the same TCGplayer figure each card page quotes; a dot means we hold no price for that card yet.
- chase card · Charizard VMAX$39.07
- sealed booster box · Darkness Ablaze$345.56
Cheaper than the box
The single most valuable card in this set costs $306.49 less than one sealed booster box of it. Box price TCGplayer, quoted October 31, 2026.
11.3% of the box. Two recorded prices. The odds of pulling the card are the rip simulation below, not this line.
Cheapest recorded route to packsDarkness Ablaze Booster Box $9.60/pack
Biggest 30-day moveDarkness Ablaze Single Pack Blister [Pikachu] +15.9%
Show all 24Show fewer
Every price is the tracked TCGplayer figure from our nightly sealed sync. Cost per pack is shown only where the pack count is recorded on a single-unit product; lots (cases, multi-sets) are listed but never enter per-pack math. No pack counts are assumed.
Monte Carlo · 10,000 boxes
Should you rip Darkness Ablaze?
0.0%
of boxes beat the $346 box price
- Bottom 5%$59
- Median box$75
- Expected value$82
- Top 5%$121
Where 10,000 boxes landed
0.0%$0-50
80.9%$50-100
18.0%$100-150
1.0%$150-200
0.0%$200-250
Red buckets end below the $346 box price. 99.7% of boxes returned less than half the box cost; 0.0% doubled it.
How the simulation works, tier by tier
We simulated 10,000 booster boxes of Darkness Ablaze using today's real market price for every card in the set, the real box price ($346, $9.61/pack), and the published per-pack pull rates for this set. Most simulated boxes came out worth less than they cost. The contents are worth 23.6% of the box ask on average.
What a box actually pulls (sim average)
| Hit tier | Published rate | Pool | Avg / box | Mean value | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMAX / VSTAR | 1-in-23 (4.42%) (inherited) | 7 | 1.58 | $8.62 | Charizard VMAX ($39) |
| Pokemon V | 1-in-9 (11.63%) (inherited) | 14 | 4.18 | $1.97 | Charizard V ($7) |
| Rainbow rare | 1-in-78 (1.28%) (inherited) | 12 | 0.45 | $7.29 | Butterfree VMAX ($17) |
| Full-art V | 1-in-51 (1.98%) (inherited) | 9 | 0.72 | $3.54 | Houndoom V ($6) |
| Gold secret rare | 1-in-131 (0.76%) (inherited) | 12 | 0.27 | $7.29 | Butterfree VMAX ($17) |
| Full-art Trainer | 1-in-70 (1.42%) (inherited) | 4 | 0.5 | $1.76 | Pokémon Breeder's Nurturing ($2) |
| Alt-art V | 1-in-201 (0.50%) (inherited) | 9 | 0.18 | $3.54 | Houndoom V ($6) |
Rows that repeat a pool are not a duplication: our catalog files full-art and alt-art V under one rarity, and rainbow and gold secrets under another, so the two published rates roll separately over the same cards.
Not simulated. Radiant rare: rated at 1-in-20 (5.01%) by the study, but our catalog holds no card of this tier for this set. A tier nobody has published a rate for is left out rather than folded into a neighboring tier.
Simulation, clearly labeled as one. Card prices and the $346 box price (Darkness Ablaze Booster Box, 36 packs) are live recorded data. Per-pack odds are published measurements: every rate here is inherited from an era study of 8,000+ packs, not measured on this set (the study opened packs of Lost Origin) (tcgplayer.com, 8,000+ packs). The simulation assumes every card in the tier is equally likely, which flatters any tier holding one expensive card: valuing each tier at its median card instead of its mean moves the expected value by 30.4% on this set. Commons, uncommons and reverse holos are worth $50 of the box before any hit. Unpriced cards count $0 (201 of 201 pooled cards are priced). Selling costs, fees and shipping are NOT deducted, so real-world outcomes skew worse than shown. Re-simulated every 2 days. Not financial advice.
Breadth: 91 cards up · 72 down · 24 flat over 30 days. Biggest mover: Scizor VMAX (Secret) (+10.8%).